Gale Warning 236, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 141317 CCA
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST MON FEB 14 2005

CORRECTED FOR AREA 2C HEADLINE.

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT WEST OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF
OF ALASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-150300-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST MON FEB 14 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-150300-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST MON FEB 14 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-150300-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST MON FEB 14 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-150300-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST MON FEB 14 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-150300-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST MON FEB 14 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-150300-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST MON FEB 14 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-150300-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST MON FEB 14 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-150300-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST MON FEB 14 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-150300-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST MON FEB 14 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 141547 AAB
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
700 AM AST MON FEB 14 2005

UPDATE ALL ZONES 

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT WEST OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF
OF ALASKA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-150300-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
700 AM AST MON FEB 14 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-150300-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
700 AM AST MON FEB 14 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-150300-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
700 AM AST MON FEB 14 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-150300-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
700 AM AST MON FEB 14 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-150300-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
700 AM AST MON FEB 14 2005

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING SW 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-150300-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
700 AM AST MON FEB 14 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT
SUBSIDING TO 13 FT THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-150300-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
700 AM AST MON FEB 14 2005

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-150300-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
700 AM AST MON FEB 14 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-150300-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
700 AM AST MON FEB 14 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SUN FEB 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS - THE MAJOR UPPER LOW COMPLEX OVER THE BERING SEA IS SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF RETRO MOVEMENT WEST BUT HAS ALSO FOUND SOME NEW COLD
AIR -39C AT 500 MB AS PER 12Z PASY RAOB. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IN THE
BERING HAS FILLED TO 967 MB NEAR ADAK BUT A WAVE HAS DEVELOPED TO 976
MB IN BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING. NCEP 12Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A MONDO SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF KODIAK ISLAND AND A COLD FRONT STRUCTURE ALONG
152W OR SO. ANOTHER DEVELOPER IS NEAR 46N 168W AT 16Z ON SATELLITE
PROBABLY AROUND 989 MB WITH DECENT COLD AIR SUPPORT. THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IS NOW ALONG 145W OR SO AND THE RADARS ALL SHOW PRECIP ACROSS
OUR GIGANTIC FORECAST AREA. THE JET AT 250 MB THIS MORNING IS VERY
STRONG FROM JAPAN ALONG 35N AT 165 KT WITH THE SPLIT AT 165W.

AER FORECASTS - AS THE DEVELOPING LOW GOES TO BETHEL THIS AFTERNOON
DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL PEAK FOR ANCHORAGE. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO WARM AFTER A BRISK LAST NIGHT. PLENTY OF SNOW MOVING INTO
ZONE 145 TODAY AS PER RADAR AND THE WEST SIDE THERE SHOULD GET MORE
SNOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THE MOMENT THE HIGH WIND WATCH
WILL PROBABLY BE CHANGED TO A WARNING ON THE 4 PM PACKAGE. GFS-190
PREFERRED WITH A SSW JET OVER PAFC 00Z TUE. MOISTURE STREAM WILL BE
AIMED AT PAVW THEN.

ALU FORECASTS - EXPECT A DRY SLOT FOR MUCH OF SW ALASKA AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST BETHEL THIS EVENING...BUT THE NEXT DEVELOPER
WILL RAPIDLY PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS ONE WILL
BE AROUND 972 MB OVER COLD BAY 12Z MON AS PER THE GFS-190 WHICH IS
THE MAIN SFC LOW THEN. ALL MODELS FORECAST A LOW IN THE 970S NEAR
UNALASKA BY 18Z WED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HI WND WATCH 101. WIND ADV 125 171 181. WINTER WX ADV 161.
         SNOW ADV 145.
MARINE...STORM 132 150. HVY FRZ SPRAY 130 140 141 185.
         GALES 120 125 130 138 141 155 160 165 172 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JC FEB 05