Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
315 AM CDT THU APR 22 2004

EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAS SEEN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE WEATHER AS THE THE SURFACE FOCUS REMAINS DRAPED OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO LIFT NORTH TODAY...BUT IT
WILL EFFECTIVELY REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OUT WEST IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW. WEAKER MID LEVEL WINDS ALONG WITH WARMER
MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY OFFSET SEVERE POTENTIAL SOME. HOWEVER WONT
DOWNPLAY IT AT THIS POINT AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...INSTABILITY AND
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INHIBITION WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN...IT APPEARS
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (MAINLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS) WILL SEE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STORMS. FRIDAY
APPEARS TO BE MORE OF THE SAME...HOWEVER THE FA MAY BE IN BETWEEN
UPPER WAVES DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY TEMPER RAIN CHANCES SOME.

FRONT WONT CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY. MODELS NOW
INDICATE THE UPPER LOW DIGS/SLOWS DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAY
HAVE TO UP POPS FOR SATURDAY AS BOTH GFS AND ETA IN ROUGH AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SOLUTION. STILL EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER AIR IN FOR SUNDAY.
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL INDUCE
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US.  THE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARDS
MIDWEEK...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    75   56   68   55 /  50   70   50   70
FSM    77   61   73   57 /  50   70   50   70
MLC    79   63   72   59 /  30   50   50   70
BVO    72   54   66   52 /  50   70   50   70
FYV    72   57   68   55 /  50   70   50   70
BYV    72   58   67   57 /  50   70   50   70
MKO    74   59   71   57 /  50   70   50   70
MIO    72   54   67   52 /  50   70   50   70
F10    76   59   70   57 /  30   50   50   70
HHW    82   65   75   63 /  30   50   50   70

FORECAST ID= 23

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
   NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE LIKELY.

INSTABILITY HAS ALREADY BUILT TO IMPRESSIVE LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE RATHER STRONG AND
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NEAR JOPLIN MISSOURI STRETCHING
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  FURTHER SOUTH...A WEAKER YET PRONOUNCED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS BOUNDARY IS RUNNING VERY NEAR THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY FROM
FORT SMITH WESTWARD AND INTERSECTING THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  THIS BOUNDARY MAY DRIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD
HOWEVER THIS GENERAL PLACEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON WHEN
INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR.  ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE
EVENING.

ACCOMPANYING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE PREVIOUS RAIN EVENTS
HAVE SATURATED THE SOIL LEAVING ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS TO CONTRIBUTE
TO A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CURRENT HAZARDS SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.
GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE
ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD HAVE
ALREADY COMPLETED PREPARATIONS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.
ADDITIONAL PREPARATIONS FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING TORNADOES SHOULD BE
CONSIDERED.  PERSONAL DEDICATED TO MONITORING THE LATEST WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND STATEMENTS IS RECOMMENDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS SHOULD BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR FURTHER INFORMATION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

A RETURN TO MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL ARRIVE BY THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1236 AM CDT THU APR 22 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 AM     HAIL             KEOTA                   35.26N 94.92W
04/22/2004  0.75 INCH        HASKELL            OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
120 AM CDT THU APR 22 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0111 AM     HAIL             SPIRO                   35.24N 94.62W
04/22/2004  1.00 INCH        LE FLORE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
132 AM CDT THU APR 22 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0111 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SPIRO                   35.24N 94.62W
04/22/2004                   LE FLORE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING WAS OCCURRING.

&&

SP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
159 AM CDT THU APR 22 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 AM     HAIL             3 E PANAMA              35.17N 94.62W
04/22/2004  0.75 INCH        LE FLORE           OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
212 AM CDT THU APR 22 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 AM     TSTM WND GST     GREENWOOD               35.22N 94.26W
04/22/2004  60 MPH           SEBASTIAN          AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
226 AM CDT THU APR 22 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 AM     TSTM WND GST     PRYOR                   36.31N 95.32W
04/22/2004  70 MPH           MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MEASURED GUST

&&

SP