Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
1110 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

UPDATING FORECAST TO ADD NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND DELETE
THE TORNADO WATCH. ADJUSTED POPS TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS AND ALSO
ADJUSTED SKY COVER SOME.

FORECAST ID= 05

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

PLATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
   NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE LIKELY.

INSTABILITY HAS ALREADY BUILT TO IMPRESSIVE LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE RATHER STRONG AND
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NEAR JOPLIN MISSOURI STRETCHING
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  FURTHER SOUTH...A WEAKER YET PRONOUNCED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS BOUNDARY IS RUNNING VERY NEAR THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY FROM
FORT SMITH WESTWARD AND INTERSECTING THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  THIS BOUNDARY MAY DRIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD
HOWEVER THIS GENERAL PLACEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON WHEN
INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR.  ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE
EVENING.

ACCOMPANYING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE PREVIOUS RAIN EVENTS
HAVE SATURATED THE SOIL LEAVING ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS TO CONTRIBUTE
TO A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CURRENT HAZARDS SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.
GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE
ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD HAVE
ALREADY COMPLETED PREPARATIONS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.
ADDITIONAL PREPARATIONS FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING TORNADOES SHOULD BE
CONSIDERED.  PERSONAL DEDICATED TO MONITORING THE LATEST WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND STATEMENTS IS RECOMMENDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS SHOULD BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR FURTHER INFORMATION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

A RETURN TO MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL ARRIVE BY THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1027 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     HAIL             HANNA                   35.21N 95.89W
04/21/2004  1.75 INCH        MCINTOSH           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1108 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1107 PM     TSTM WND GST     STIDHAM                 35.37N 95.70W
04/21/2004  70 MPH           MCINTOSH           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1115 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

OKZ049-053-065-071-073>076-220500-
CHOCTAW OK-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-MCINTOSH OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-PUSHMATAHA OK-
1115 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS REPLACED THE TORNADO WATCH IN HASKELL...LE FLORE...MCINTOSH AND
OKFUSKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 4 AM.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1117 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1117 PM     HAIL             EUFAULA                 35.29N 95.58W
04/21/2004  1.00 INCH        MCINTOSH           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1125 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1124 PM     HAIL             4 N EUFAULA             35.35N 95.58W
04/21/2004  1.75 INCH        MCINTOSH           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

ARZ019-029-220545-
CRAWFORD AR-SEBASTIAN AR-
1143 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CRAWFORD

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SEBASTIAN

AT 1142 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES WEST OF BONANZA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MILL CREEK...FORT
SMITH...BONANZA...VAN BUREN...AND ALMA.

OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST CRAWFORD AND
NORTHEAST SEBASTIAN COUNTIES...MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.