Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
740 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

IN RESPONSE THE WEAKER MID-LEVEL WINDS AND WEAKER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...THE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS EVOLVING
INTO A MESOSCLE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

HOWEVER FURTHER SOUTH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND THE CELL STRUCTURE REMAINS MORE DISCRETE
AND SUPERCELLULAR.  WITH THE DIURNAL INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND THE STORMS THERE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUPERCELLULAR INTO THE LATE EVENING.

ALL OF STORM BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY MERGE INTO ONE PRIMARY BOUNDARY
FROM SOUTHERN LE FLORE COUNTY INTO PITTSBURG COUNTY.  CELLS NEAR ANY
OF THESE EAST-WEST BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE INCREASED STORM-SCALE
ROTATION POTENTIAL.

FORECAST ID= 08

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
   NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE LIKELY.

INSTABILITY HAS ALREADY BUILT TO IMPRESSIVE LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE RATHER STRONG AND
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NEAR JOPLIN MISSOURI STRETCHING
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  FURTHER SOUTH...A WEAKER YET PRONOUNCED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS BOUNDARY IS RUNNING VERY NEAR THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY FROM
FORT SMITH WESTWARD AND INTERSECTING THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  THIS BOUNDARY MAY DRIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD
HOWEVER THIS GENERAL PLACEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON WHEN
INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR.  ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE
EVENING.

ACCOMPANYING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE PREVIOUS RAIN EVENTS
HAVE SATURATED THE SOIL LEAVING ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS TO CONTRIBUTE
TO A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CURRENT HAZARDS SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.
GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE
ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD HAVE
ALREADY COMPLETED PREPARATIONS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.
ADDITIONAL PREPARATIONS FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING TORNADOES SHOULD BE
CONSIDERED.  PERSONAL DEDICATED TO MONITORING THE LATEST WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND STATEMENTS IS RECOMMENDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS SHOULD BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR FURTHER INFORMATION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

A RETURN TO MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL ARRIVE BY THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
738 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NE SAPULPA            36.03N 96.08W
04/21/2004  60 MPH           CREEK              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

GW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
744 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             ALMA                    35.48N 94.22W
04/21/2004  0.75 INCH        CRAWFORD           AR   AMATEUR RADIO

0730 PM     HAIL             ALMA                    35.48N 94.22W
04/21/2004  1.75 INCH        CRAWFORD           AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

GW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
746 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     HAIL             VAN BUREN               35.44N 94.35W
04/21/2004  0.88 INCH        CRAWFORD           AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

GW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
747 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

OKZ067-220145-
WAGONER OK-
747 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WAGONER

AT 747 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES WEST OF ONETA TO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF
STONEBLUFF TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STONEBLUFF...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
WAGONER...CHOSKA...TULLAHASSEE...PORTER...STONEBLUFF...REDBIRD...
COWETA AND ONETA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
825 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             ALMA                    35.48N 94.22W
04/21/2004  0.75 INCH        CRAWFORD           AR   AMATEUR RADIO

0730 PM     HAIL             ALMA                    35.48N 94.22W
04/21/2004  1.75 INCH        CRAWFORD           AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            WINDSHIELDS BROKEN.  DAMAGE TO A SIGN AND AWNING AT
            TACO BELL.
&&

GW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...AMENDED FOR ADDITIONAL INFO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
845 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SILVER CITY             36.09N 96.49W
04/21/2004                   CREEK              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE HALF MILE NORTH OF SILVER CITY...TWO MOBILE
            HOMES DESTROYED...AND TREES UPROOTED.

            CONFIRMED...NO INJURIES.
&&

GW