Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
959 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

DISC...

BUSY NIGHT ONCE AGAIN. NEAR STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WEST - EAST VICINITY I-40  ALONG WITH MULTITUDE
OF THUNDER RESIDUE (BOUNDARIES). EARLIER ACTION
DIMINISHED A BIT...BUT NEW POTENT THUNDER AGAIN
ACTIVE SOUTHWEST TSA CWA. H500 TEMP TO COOL FEW
DEGREES OVERNIGHT WHILE H850 AND LOWER MOISTURE
INCREASES..ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST CORNER FORECAST
AREA.  IT MAY BE A LONG NIGHT.  POPS RANGE FROM
CATEGORICAL NORTHEAST..TO BIG CHANCE SOUTHWEST.

SEE LITTLE CHANGE FOR THURSDAY...LIKELY GREATER
CAPE WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE... MAYBE A LESSER
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD.  IN ANY EVENT ADDED EXTRA
ENHANCED WORDING FOR THUNDER PROSPECTS THURSDAY.
STAY TUNED.                                  GW

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    59   76   58   69 /  70   30   70   70
FSM    61   78   62   73 /  70   30   70   70
MLC    63   78   63   73 /  50   30   50   70
BVO    57   74   56   67 /  70   30   70   70
FYV    58   72   59   68 /  90   30   70   70
BYV    57   74   60   69 / 100   30   70   70
MKO    61   77   61   70 /  70   30   70   70
MIO    57   75   58   67 /  90   30   70   70
F10    62   76   61   70 /  60   30   60   70
HHW    64   80   65   76 /  50   30   50   70

FORECAST ID= 21

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
100 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
   NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE LIKELY.

INSTABILITY HAS ALREADY BUILT TO IMPRESSIVE LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE RATHER STRONG AND
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NEAR JOPLIN MISSOURI STRETCHING
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  FURTHER SOUTH...A WEAKER YET PRONOUNCED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS BOUNDARY IS RUNNING VERY NEAR THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY FROM
FORT SMITH WESTWARD AND INTERSECTING THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.  THIS BOUNDARY MAY DRIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD
HOWEVER THIS GENERAL PLACEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON WHEN
INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR.  ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE
EVENING.

ACCOMPANYING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE AN ELEVATED RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE PREVIOUS RAIN EVENTS
HAVE SATURATED THE SOIL LEAVING ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS TO CONTRIBUTE
TO A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CURRENT HAZARDS SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.
GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE
ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD HAVE
ALREADY COMPLETED PREPARATIONS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.
ADDITIONAL PREPARATIONS FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING TORNADOES SHOULD BE
CONSIDERED.  PERSONAL DEDICATED TO MONITORING THE LATEST WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND STATEMENTS IS RECOMMENDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS SHOULD BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR FURTHER INFORMATION FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

A RETURN TO MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL ARRIVE BY THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
746 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     HAIL             VAN BUREN               35.44N 94.35W
04/21/2004  0.88 INCH        CRAWFORD           AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

GW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
747 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

OKZ067-220145-
WAGONER OK-
747 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WAGONER

AT 747 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES WEST OF ONETA TO 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF
STONEBLUFF TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STONEBLUFF...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
WAGONER...CHOSKA...TULLAHASSEE...PORTER...STONEBLUFF...REDBIRD...
COWETA AND ONETA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
825 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             ALMA                    35.48N 94.22W
04/21/2004  0.75 INCH        CRAWFORD           AR   AMATEUR RADIO

0730 PM     HAIL             ALMA                    35.48N 94.22W
04/21/2004  1.75 INCH        CRAWFORD           AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            WINDSHIELDS BROKEN.  DAMAGE TO A SIGN AND AWNING AT
            TACO BELL.
&&

GW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...AMENDED FOR ADDITIONAL INFO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
845 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SILVER CITY             36.09N 96.49W
04/21/2004                   CREEK              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE HALF MILE NORTH OF SILVER CITY...TWO MOBILE
            HOMES DESTROYED...AND TREES UPROOTED.

            CONFIRMED...NO INJURIES.
&&

GW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
922 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

OKZ060-220245-
TULSA OK-
922 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     TULSA

AT 920 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORM OVER
TULSA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. PUBLIC REPRORTED SMALL HAIL WITH
THIS STORM.  SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
INCLUDE...TULSA...OWASSO AND COLLINSVILLE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
935 PM CDT WED APR 21 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0909 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LOST CITY               35.99N 95.14W
04/21/2004                   CHEROKEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THE LOST CITY ROAD WAS FLOODED AND COMPLETELY IMPASSIBLE.

&&

SP