Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004

Mesoscale Discussion 155

March 4, 2004Lea County, Roosevelt County, New Mexico; 21 counties in Oklahoma; 61 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 4, 2004, 12:56 AM MST for Lea County, Roosevelt County, New Mexico; 21 counties in Oklahoma; 61 counties in Texas. It was in force for 94 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 4, 2004, 12:56 AM MST (07:56 UTC)
Expired
Mar 4, 2004, 2:30 AM MST
In force
94 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 84 counties

Lea County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, Beckham County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Carter County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Grady County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Love County, OK, McClain County, OK, Murray County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Washita County, OK, Archer County, TX, Bailey County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Brown County, TX, Castro County, TX, Childress County, TX, Clay County, TX, Cochran County, TX, Coke County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Concho County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Donley County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Edwards County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Foard County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Hockley County, TX, Irion County, TX, Jack County, TX, Jones County, TX, Kerr County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Kinney County, TX, Knox County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Loving County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Mason County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, Menard County, TX, Montague County, TX, Motley County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Real County, TX, Runnels County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Upton County, TX, Val Verde County, TX, Ward County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX, Yoakum County, TX, Young County, TX

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 114 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Midland Regional, TX at 00:00Z on 2004-03-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Midland Regional, TX at 00:00Z on 2004-03-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 258 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
465 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
77 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
258 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
343 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

921 
ACUS11 KWNS 040756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040756 
TXZ000-NMZ000-OKZ000-040930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 AM CST THU MAR 04 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SW OK...SW TX -- PERMIAN
BASIN...CONCHO/PECOS VALLEYS AND SOUTH PLAINS REGION

CONCERNING...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL 

VALID 040756Z - 040930Z

SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS BROAD SWATH OF
SRN HIGH PLAINS AND ADJACENT LOW PLAINS W OF ABOUT 98W LONGITUDE. 
WITH WW 17 EXPIRATION AT 8Z...NEW WWS REQUIRED TO COVER BOTH
EXPANSIVE SEVERE HAIL THREAT N OF NWD-RETREATING SFC WARM
FRONT...AND TORNADO POTENTIAL ALONG AND S OF FRONT.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT FROM JUST E OF BIG BEND AREA...IN
NRN COAHUILA...NEWD TO NEAR SJT AND DFW METROPLEX.  EXPECT THIS
FRONT TO MOVE NWD ABOUT 10 KT FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS AS PRESSURES
CONTINUE TO FALL OVER REGION.  AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA -- BOTH OVER TOP OF FRONTAL LAYER AND
AT SFC TO ITS S.  ELEVATED MUCAPE 800-1200 J/KG EVIDENT N OF SFC
WARM FRONT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT EXPECTED
TO DESTABILIZE AIR MASS FARTHER ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. 
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL.  ALONG AND S OF FRONT...1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE COMBINED WITH
ENLARGING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS -- I.E.. 200-400 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH --
WILL SUPPORT STORM ROTATION.  60-70 KT SHEAR EXPECTED THROUGH 0-6 KM
LAYER...ALONG WITH 20-25 KT S-R INFLOW.  ANY SFC BASED STORMS WHICH
DO DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE TORNADOES -- PARTICULARLY WHILE INTERACTING
WITH SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE WHERE LIFT/SHEAR/VORTICITY ARE MAXIMIZED.

..EDWARDS.. 03/04/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...FWD...EWX...OUN...AMA...ABQ...

30690359 32580359 34320009 32460009 

31250247 32430009 32459977 32259933 32389868 31339889
30409915 29509957 29240079 29340094 29530121 29610121
29600132 29660131 29770144 29770159 29810183 29800210
30170235 30880257 31150270 

31200269 32070363 32900405 34030362 34340286 34680196
35200005 35919807 35629730 33919693 32439866 32349937
32490008

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 4, 1:00 AM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCLea, Roosevelt5 hr
Mar 4, 4:01 AM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCLea, Roosevelt119 min
Mar 4, 1:44 AM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Carter and 36 more3 hr
Mar 4, 5:55 AM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBeckham, Custer, Dewey, Ellis, Greer, Harmon and 6 more6 hr
Mar 4, 6:20 AM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlfalfa, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Comanche and 23 more6 hr
Mar 4, 6:55 AM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Beckham, Blaine, Canadian, Custer, Dewey and 17 more3 hr
Mar 4, 8:28 AM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Cherokee, Choctaw and 33 more62 min
Mar 4, 8:45 AM MSTTornado WatchSPCCaddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Comanche, Cotton, Garvin and 8 more5 hr
Mar 4, 10:52 AM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter, Cleveland, Comanche, Cotton, Garvin, Grady and 7 more53 min
Mar 4, 12:02 PM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCaddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Comanche, Cotton, Garvin and 6 more88 min
Mar 4, 12:25 PM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Atoka, Bryan, Cherokee, Choctaw, Coal and 29 more65 min
Mar 4, 1:02 PM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCanadian, Carter, Cleveland, Comanche, Creek, Garvin and 12 more88 min
Mar 4, 1:05 PM MSTTornado WatchSPCAdair, Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Cherokee, Coal and 33 more6 hr
Mar 4, 1:18 PM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChoctaw, McCurtain57 min
Mar 4, 2:00 PM MSTTornado WatchSPCChoctaw, McCurtain6 hr
Mar 4, 3:41 PM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMcCurtain2 hr
Mar 3, 6:03 PM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Borden, Coke, Crane, Crockett, Dawson and 25 more117 min
Mar 3, 7:40 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAndrews, Borden, Cottle, Crane, Crosby, Dawson and 20 more5 hr
Mar 3, 10:44 PM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndrews, Borden, Crane, Crosby, Dawson, Dickens and 16 more2 hr
Mar 4, 3:25 AM MSTTornado WatchSPCCallahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett, Fisher and 23 more6 hr
Mar 4, 4:32 AM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCallahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett, Fisher and 23 more118 min
Mar 4, 7:43 AM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Baylor, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho and 26 more62 min
Mar 4, 9:46 AM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Bandera, Bell, Bexar, Blanco, Bosque and 27 more89 min
Mar 4, 10:50 AM MSTTornado WatchSPCBandera, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Brown, Burnet and 42 more5 hr
Mar 4, 10:52 AM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAustin, Brazoria, Brazos, Burleson, Chambers, Colorado and 15 more113 min
Mar 4, 12:42 PM MSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBell, Blanco, Bosque, Burnet, Collin, Coryell and 17 more63 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.