Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2004
Mesoscale Discussion 1015
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 31, 2004, 7:56 AM EDT for 19 counties in North Carolina; 7 counties in South Carolina; 10 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 31, 2004, 7:56 AM EDT (11:56 UTC)
- Expired
- May 31, 2004, 10:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 36 counties
Alamance County, NC, Anson County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Union County, NC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Lancaster County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC, Bedford County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, Franklin County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Henry County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA
The radar
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 151 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 65 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 504 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -52 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1119 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 34 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 84 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 149 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 1.2
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
478 ACUS11 KWNS 311157 SWOMCD SPC MCD 311156 VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-311400- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1015 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0656 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA...NC PIEDMONT...NRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 351... VALID 311156Z - 311400Z OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND HAS BEEN NOTED IN RADAR REFLECTIVITY AND VIL VALUES AS EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A STRONG OUTFLOW BEHIND THE LINE WITH 30-40KT DIVERGENT WINDS AND A MESOHIGH LOCATED ACROSS WRN NC. LINE IS BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND STRONGER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LIKELY WITH TIME AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INTERCEPTS GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH. WITH DIURNAL MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY NOW BEING REALIZED ACROSS THE REGION...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN LIMITED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE A RESURGENCE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY DEVELOPS WITHIN LEE TROUGH AND ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2004 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP... 34418037 34368236 35438125 36498036 37327991 37297829
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 1:40 AM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Avery, Buncombe, Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Haywood and 8 more | 5 hr |
| May 31, 4:40 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Avery, Buncombe, Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Haywood and 8 more | 95 min |
| May 31, 5:50 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alamance, Alexander, Anson, Cabarrus, Caswell, Catawba and 21 more | 5 hr |
| May 31, 9:10 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alamance, Anson, Cabarrus, Chatham, Cumberland, Davidson and 23 more | 5 hr |
| May 31, 11:18 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bladen, Brunswick, Columbus, Cumberland, New Hanover, Pender and 3 more | 27 min |
| May 31, 11:40 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bladen, Columbus | 6 hr |
| May 31, 12:46 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Robeson, Sampson | 29 min |
| May 31, 2:27 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bladen, Columbus | 63 min |
| May 31, 3:50 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Camden, Currituck, Pasquotank | 6 hr |
| May 31, 12:40 AM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bland, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Giles, Grayson and 12 more | 5 hr |
| May 31, 2:40 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bland, Buchanan, Dickenson, Giles, Grayson, Lee and 11 more | 2 hr |
| May 31, 2:53 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Accomack, Amelia, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfield, Culpeper and 51 more | 37 min |
| May 31, 7:17 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Accomack, Albemarle, Arlington, Caroline, Culpeper, Essex and 31 more | 118 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2004Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2004Every mesoscale discussion in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.