Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

000 
WGUS74 KHGX 271522
FFSHOU
TXC185-313-477-271630-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1022 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WARNING CONTINUES FOR MADISON...GRIMES AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM CDT...

AT 1010 AM CDT MADISON COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED FM HIGHWAY 
2158 HAS BEEN CLOSED OFF OF FM HIGHWAY 1428. ALSO...FM HIGHWAY 1428 
HAS BEEN CLOSED FROM FM HIGHWAY 2158 TO FM HIGHWAY 247. 

GRIMES COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS FLOODING IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS 
ON FM HIGHWAY 1774. WATER IS 4 FEET OVER THE BRIDGE AT ST. MARYS 
CHURCH...AND THE ROAD CONTINUES TO BE FLOODED FROM 4 MILES OUTSIDE 
OF ANDERSON TO PLANTERSVILLE. COUNTY ROAD 179 IN GRIMES COUNTY HAS 
BEEN CLOSED.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 1130 AM WILL AVERAGE 1/2 TO 1 
INCH...MAINLY OVER MADISON AND NORTHERN GRIMES COUNTIES.

FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT WALK OR DRIVE ACROSS ANY LOCATION WHERE WATER
COVERS THE GROUND

THIS STORM IS CAUSING FLASH FLOODING IN SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS...
BAYOUS AND ADJACENT FARMLAND. FARM-TO-MARKET OR OTHER SECONDARY ROADS
MAY BE FLOODED. DO NOT CROSS ANY LOCATION WHERE WATER COVERS THE
ROAD

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...OR
DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3113 9580 3103 9576 3087 9591 3036 9593
          3027 9605 3025 9618 3016 9625 3009 9663
          3028 9667 3036 9625 3033 9614 3037 9606
          3102 9619 3108 9596

$$

000 
WGUS74 KHGX 271525 CCA
FFSHOU
TXC185-313-477-271630-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT...COR TO HEADLINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1024 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR MADISON...GRIMES AND 
WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM CDT...

AT 1010 AM CDT MADISON COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED FM HIGHWAY 
2158 HAS BEEN CLOSED OFF OF FM HIGHWAY 1428. ALSO...FM HIGHWAY 1428 
HAS BEEN CLOSED FROM FM HIGHWAY 2158 TO FM HIGHWAY 247. 

GRIMES COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS FLOODING IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS 
ON FM HIGHWAY 1774. WATER IS 4 FEET OVER THE BRIDGE AT ST. MARYS 
CHURCH...AND THE ROAD CONTINUES TO BE FLOODED FROM 4 MILES OUTSIDE 
OF ANDERSON TO PLANTERSVILLE. COUNTY ROAD 179 IN GRIMES COUNTY HAS 
BEEN CLOSED.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 1130 AM WILL AVERAGE 1/2 TO 1 
INCH...MAINLY OVER MADISON AND NORTHERN GRIMES COUNTIES.

FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT WALK OR DRIVE ACROSS ANY LOCATION WHERE WATER
COVERS THE GROUND

THIS STORM IS CAUSING FLASH FLOODING IN SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS...
BAYOUS AND ADJACENT FARMLAND. FARM-TO-MARKET OR OTHER SECONDARY ROADS
MAY BE FLOODED. DO NOT CROSS ANY LOCATION WHERE WATER COVERS THE
ROAD

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...OR
DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3113 9580 3103 9576 3087 9591 3036 9593
          3027 9605 3025 9618 3016 9625 3009 9663
          3028 9667 3036 9625 3033 9614 3037 9606
          3102 9619 3108 9596

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
312 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004

.DISCUSSION...
THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER SE TX HAS SLOWLY CHANGED AND BECOME A BIT
DRIER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS
DIFFICULT AS 24 HOURS AGO AND THE CHANCES AND AMOUNTS OF RAIN CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM.

EVEN THOUGH K-INDICES AND PW/S WERE HIGHER ON THE 00Z SOUNDINGS (33 TO
39 AND 1.6 TO 2.1 INCHES RESPECTIVELY)...THE WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST.  IT ALSO SHOWED ANOTHER
BLOB OF MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO HEADING TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF
AND TX COASTAL PLAIN.  ALSO...AT 00Z THE BEST 700 MB DEWPOINTS WERE
OVER CENTRAL AND E TX AND THE MODELS PLACE THIS MOISTURE AREA OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF SE TX TODAY.  THE MOISTURE COMING IN FROM MEXICO WILL
PROBABLY GET CAUGHT UP BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THE
DYING LOW OVER TX.  TO COMPLICATE THINGS FURTHER...AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF IS SUPPOSED TO DRIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  THIS LOW
WAS HELPING FORM THE RIDGE AND ITS MOVEMENT AND EVOLUTION MAY HELP
DETERMINE WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT BEST RAINFALL
OCCURS.  LIKED THE RUC AND ETA OVER THE GFS IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE
QPF AND MID LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS.

WILL TAPER THE POPS FROM 80 PERCENT NORTH TO 60 PERCENT SOUTH AND WILL
EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM TODAY.  EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH INITIALLY...THE FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS GREATER IN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE WETTER GROUND
CONDITIONS.  ALSO...MORE RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP THERE LATER TODAY.

FOR MONDAY INTO THURSDAY THE OMEGA PATTERN AT 500 MB OVER THE PACIFIC
STATES SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE PERSISTENT
TROUGH OVER SE TX TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND A RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF.  THE GFS DEVELOPS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND THE ECMWF REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.  THIS SCENARIO
WILL MEAN A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COVERAGE FROM ABOUT
MONDAY INTO THURSDAY...THEN BETTER RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

PL-40
38

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FFA SE TX FOR TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 83 73 87 73 90 / 80 40 50 40 40
HOUSTON(IAH)          84 74 86 74 88 / 70 40 50 40 50
GALVESTON (GLS)       83 75 85 75 86 / 60 40 50 40 50

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-281200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
700 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY.
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA DRIFTING INTO NORTH
TEXAS TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE TODAY.  THIS MORNING
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS
TO LIVINGSTON.  SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIKELY OVER
THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY MIDDAY OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL MOVE RATHER QUICKLY...TRAINING OF
STORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT SOME LOCATIONS.  GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED.  ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 5
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR.

WITH AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND SURFACE...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO A FLOOD THREAT.  RIVER FLOODING THAT WAS EITHER ONGOING
OR DEVELOPING WILL ADD TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE CURRENT FLOOD THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  LOWER RAIN CHANCES CAN THEN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.