Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

000 
WGUS74 KHGX 271228 CCA
FFSHOU
TXC477-271430-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
722 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WARNING CONTINUES FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY 
UNTIL 930 AM CDT...

AT 716 AM CDT DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY BETWEEN BURTON AND INDEPENDENCE.  
BETWEEN 5 AM AND 7 AM UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS THESE 
LOCATIONS.  THE HEAVY RAINFALL WAS AFFECTING HIGHWAY 36 NORTH OF 
BRENHAM AND HIGHWAY 290 BETWEEN BRENHAM AND BURTON.  LAW ENFORCEMENT 
REPORTED HIGH WATER AT THE 4000 BLOCK OF FM 390 IN BURTON.

FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT WALK OR DRIVE ACROSS ANY LOCATION WHERE WATER
COVERS THE GROUND

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...OR
DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3029 9609 3011 9622 3011 9638 3009 9659
          3019 9670 3017 9679 3032 9662 3036 9617

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
312 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004

.DISCUSSION...
THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER SE TX HAS SLOWLY CHANGED AND BECOME A BIT
DRIER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE FORECAST IS ABOUT AS
DIFFICULT AS 24 HOURS AGO AND THE CHANCES AND AMOUNTS OF RAIN CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM.

EVEN THOUGH K-INDICES AND PW/S WERE HIGHER ON THE 00Z SOUNDINGS (33 TO
39 AND 1.6 TO 2.1 INCHES RESPECTIVELY)...THE WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SLIGHTLY OFF THE COAST.  IT ALSO SHOWED ANOTHER
BLOB OF MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO HEADING TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF
AND TX COASTAL PLAIN.  ALSO...AT 00Z THE BEST 700 MB DEWPOINTS WERE
OVER CENTRAL AND E TX AND THE MODELS PLACE THIS MOISTURE AREA OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF SE TX TODAY.  THE MOISTURE COMING IN FROM MEXICO WILL
PROBABLY GET CAUGHT UP BETWEEN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THE
DYING LOW OVER TX.  TO COMPLICATE THINGS FURTHER...AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF IS SUPPOSED TO DRIFT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  THIS LOW
WAS HELPING FORM THE RIDGE AND ITS MOVEMENT AND EVOLUTION MAY HELP
DETERMINE WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT BEST RAINFALL
OCCURS.  LIKED THE RUC AND ETA OVER THE GFS IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE
QPF AND MID LAYER MOISTURE FIELDS.

WILL TAPER THE POPS FROM 80 PERCENT NORTH TO 60 PERCENT SOUTH AND WILL
EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM TODAY.  EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH INITIALLY...THE FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS GREATER IN THE SOUTH DUE TO THE WETTER GROUND
CONDITIONS.  ALSO...MORE RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP THERE LATER TODAY.

FOR MONDAY INTO THURSDAY THE OMEGA PATTERN AT 500 MB OVER THE PACIFIC
STATES SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE PERSISTENT
TROUGH OVER SE TX TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND A RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF.  THE GFS DEVELOPS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AND THE ECMWF REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.  THIS SCENARIO
WILL MEAN A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COVERAGE FROM ABOUT
MONDAY INTO THURSDAY...THEN BETTER RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

PL-40
38

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FFA SE TX FOR TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 83 73 87 73 90 / 80 40 50 40 40
HOUSTON(IAH)          84 74 86 74 88 / 70 40 50 40 50
GALVESTON (GLS)       83 75 85 75 86 / 60 40 50 40 50

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
345 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-271200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
345 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2004

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE HILL COUNTRY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTHEAST AND WILL BE SITUATED OVER NORTH TEXAS BY SUNDAY. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
HIGHWAY 10.

WITH AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND SURFACE...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO A FLOOD THREAT. RIVER FLOODING THAT WAS EITHER ONGOING OR
DEVELOPING WILL ADD TO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE CURRENT FLOOD THREAT COULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS CONDITIONS
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF MORE HEAVY RAINS. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY OVER THE LONE STAR
STATE. A LOWER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD IN OVER OUR REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.