Tornado Warning 45, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
240 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NORTHEAST AND SHOULD OUT OF TEXAS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE LONE
STAR STATE AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE...TRAILING ENERGY FROM
UPPER LOW PRODUCING STRONG CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE LAST NIGHT...
RADAR INDICATE THOSE AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF A COLUMBUS...PRAIRIE
VIEW...CONROE...LIVINGSTON...CORRIGAN LINE RECEIVING MOST RAINFALL
WITH SOME SECTIONS RECEIVING 6 TO 8 INCHES. TENTATIVELY...WE ARE
PLANNING TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LINE. LEFTOVER ENERGY FROM EXITING UPPER LOW MAY STILL
HELP IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT OVER NORTHERN
ZONES. MESO-ETA INDICATE THIS MAY BE THE CASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS DURING THE EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BOTH GFS AND
ETA INDICATE PWATS REMAINING CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. GFS INDICATE UPPER
HIGH MOVING OVER NORTHWEST GULF LATE WEDNESDAY SHOVING MOISTURE RIDGE
AXIS WEST TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTH-SOUTH FROM DRT TO SPS BY THAT TIME
IF GFS IS CORRECT. TOWARDS END OF WEEKDAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS/WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS INDICATED TO MOVE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AGAIN.

#37/47

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FFA REST OF THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS (HGX CWFA).
FFA FOR TONIGHT NORTH OF A COLUMBUS...CONROE...LIVINGSTON LINE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 87 73 87 73 / 60 50 30 40 30
HOUSTON(IAH)          74 87 74 88 75 / 40 50 30 40 30
GALVESTON (GLS)       76 85 76 86 76 / 30 40 30 40 30

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
310 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-281200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
310 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2004

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TONIGHT...

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE
TO POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER. WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THESE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET.

A FLOOD WATCH IS EFFECT TONIGHT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO CONROE TO LIVINGSTON. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION RECEIVED 2 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS...
WITH LOCALIZED 8 TO 10 INCH AMOUNTS ESTIMATED BY RADAR. THERE IS A
CHANCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SAME AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...ANY
HEAVY RAIN THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY RUNOFF AND CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING.

RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE FLOOD THREAT WILL BE RE-EVALUATED OVERNIGHT AND THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED AND OR REPOSITIONED ON
MONDAY. REGARDLESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE A CONTINUED
THREAT INTO MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WHEN DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.