Tornado Warning 23, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
310 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...
NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TSTRMS HAVE BEGUN IN THE 100+ DEGREE AIR ALONG THE DRY LINE AT THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
IN THE REGION...AND MANY WILL BECOME SEVERE IN THE VERY UNSTABLE
AIR. FORECAST MAY BE UPDATED SEVERAL TIMES THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR VARIOUS WATCH BOXES THAT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. ACTIVITY SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TSTRMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING SYSTEM FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THAT SYSTEM TOO HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. MODELS ALSO BRING ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST FROM COLORADO FRIDAY BUT TIMING IS LESS CERTAIN. IN ALL OF
THESE WEATHER EVENTS...IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODS FROM TRAINING ECHOS. IN THE EXTENDED
VIEW...THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF THE STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING RIDGE
OVER THE STATE AND NOW KEEPS A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE UNTIL
LATE IN THE FORECAST WHERE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN WITH
ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH...AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT
THAT TIME.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   69  88  70  85 /  30   0  50  30
WACO, TX               71  92  73  88 /  30   0  20  20
PARIS, TX              68  85  70  82 /  50  30  50  40
DENTON, TX             69  87  70  83 /  30   0  50  40
MCKINNEY, TX           69  87  70  83 /  30   0  50  40
DALLAS, TX             70  89  70  85 /  30   0  50  30
TERRELL, TX            70  89  71  84 /  30   0  50  30
CORSICANA, TX          71  90  73  86 /  30   0  20  20
TEMPLE, TX             71  93  74  89 /  30   0  20  20
&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
&&

82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-021100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...GENERALLY WEST OF A
BOWIE...HILLSBORO...TO TEMPLE LINE.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING DRY LINE ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS.  THESE STORMS COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.  VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS ENERGY FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY.  SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN. FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW
LYING AREAS WILL ALSO PRESENT A HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND
AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.

SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY WEST OF A BOWIE...HILLSBORO...TO TEMPLE
LINE BEFORE 8 PM.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS AFTER 7 PM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
605 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

TXZ116>119-131>134-020000-
DALLAS-ELLIS-HOOD-JOHNSON-PALO PINTO-PARKER-SOMERVELL-TARRANT-
605 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 603 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR WEATHERFORD TO WEST OF GRANBURY.
THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH AND WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN
WISE COUNTY...WESTERN TARRANT COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN DENTON COUNTY
AND WESTERN JOHNSON COUNTY BETWEEN 6 AND 7 PM.  THESE STORMS HAVE A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN.  THE STORMS WILL APPROACH WESTERN DALLAS COUNTY BY 730 PM.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
608 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     HAIL            BLUFF DALE               32.35N  98.02W
06/01/2004  0.88 INCH       ERATH               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN BLUFF DALE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
611 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL            9 NE STEPHENVILLE        32.31N  98.11W
06/01/2004  2.50 INCH       ERATH               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL 9 MILES NE OF STEPHENVILLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
617 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     TSTM WND GST    15 S HAMILTON            31.49N  98.12W
06/01/2004  70 MPH          HAMILTON            TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREES AND LIMBS DOWN IN EVANT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
619 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL            4 S RHOME                32.99N  97.47W
06/01/2004  1.75 INCH       WISE                TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL HAIL IN NEWARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
622 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL            7 NE AZLE                32.97N  97.45W
06/01/2004  1.75 INCH       TARRANT             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL HAIL NW CORNER OF TARRANT COUNTY