Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
609 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

.DISCUSSION...
609 PM AVIATION DISCUSSION.  QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS WEST
TO EAST ALONG SOUTHERN TARRANT AND SOUTHERN DALLAS COUNTY LINES.
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE FORMING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
MOVING EAST AT 20 MILES AN HOUR.  BIG CONCERN IS WHETHER OR NOT
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT NORTH AND ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH INTO DFW
AREA.  SINCE WE ARE PAST MAX HEATING...I DONT THINK STORMS WILL
REDEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO DFW AREA.  STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY
15-30 MILES SOUTH OF DFW AND DAL...BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE
SITUATION.  AFTER SUNSET STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE NIGHT... BECOMING SOUTH 5-15 MPH BY MID
MORNING TUESDAY.  59

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM GLEN ROSE SOUTHEAST TO
PALESTINE. A DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM GLEN ROSE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO
BROWNWOOD. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S.ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE BOUNDARIES BUT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT THE RISK OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE IS SLIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD
END THIS EVENING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN. THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND THIS
AFTERNOON IS HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. AS IT DOES THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
LIFT TO THE NORTH RETURNING MOISTURE TO ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY EVENING. IN THIS UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW WILL BE SHORTWAVES. ALL
MODELS HANDLE EACH OF THESE MINOR DISTURBANCE DIFFERENTLY IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT THE
POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIME OF THESE TWO DISTURBANCES AND DRIED
THE FORECAST DURING THE REMAINING TIME FRAMES. EVEN THESE TWO
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL DEPEND GREATLY UPON THE LOCATION OF THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY INTEGRATION WITH NEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
GENERATED FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

BY LATE THIS WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT RETURNING THE REGION
TO A DRIER EARLY SUMMER LIKE WEATHER.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   69  93  73  91 /   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX               72  95  74  95 /  20   0   0   0
PARIS, TX              69  90  73  88 /   0   0   0  20
DENTON, TX             68  93  72  90 /   0   0   0  20
MCKINNEY, TX           70  92  73  90 /   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX             70  93  73  92 /   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX            72  92  74  92 /   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX          73  93  74  93 /  20   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX             72  96  74  96 /  20   0   0   0
&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
&&

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