Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
310 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...
NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
TSTRMS HAVE BEGUN IN THE 100+ DEGREE AIR ALONG THE DRY LINE AT THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
IN THE REGION...AND MANY WILL BECOME SEVERE IN THE VERY UNSTABLE
AIR. FORECAST MAY BE UPDATED SEVERAL TIMES THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT
FOR VARIOUS WATCH BOXES THAT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. ACTIVITY SHOULD
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TSTRMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING SYSTEM FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THAT SYSTEM TOO HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. MODELS ALSO BRING ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTHEAST FROM COLORADO FRIDAY BUT TIMING IS LESS CERTAIN. IN ALL OF
THESE WEATHER EVENTS...IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODS FROM TRAINING ECHOS. IN THE EXTENDED
VIEW...THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF THE STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING RIDGE
OVER THE STATE AND NOW KEEPS A WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE UNTIL
LATE IN THE FORECAST WHERE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN WITH
ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH...AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT
THAT TIME.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   69  88  70  85 /  30   0  50  30
WACO, TX               71  92  73  88 /  30   0  20  20
PARIS, TX              68  85  70  82 /  50  30  50  40
DENTON, TX             69  87  70  83 /  30   0  50  40
MCKINNEY, TX           69  87  70  83 /  30   0  50  40
DALLAS, TX             70  89  70  85 /  30   0  50  30
TERRELL, TX            70  89  71  84 /  30   0  50  30
CORSICANA, TX          71  90  73  86 /  30   0  20  20
TEMPLE, TX             71  93  74  89 /  30   0  20  20
&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
&&

82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-021100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...GENERALLY WEST OF A
BOWIE...HILLSBORO...TO TEMPLE LINE.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING DRY LINE ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS.  THESE STORMS COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.  VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO SUPPORT SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS ENERGY FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY.  SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN. FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW
LYING AREAS WILL ALSO PRESENT A HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND
AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.

SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY WEST OF A BOWIE...HILLSBORO...TO TEMPLE
LINE BEFORE 8 PM.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS AFTER 7 PM.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
422 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     HAIL            3 NW DE LEON             32.14N  98.57W
06/01/2004  0.75 INCH       COMANCHE            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED BY DE LEON FIRE DEPT