Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
609 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

.DISCUSSION...
609 PM AVIATION DISCUSSION.  QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS WEST
TO EAST ALONG SOUTHERN TARRANT AND SOUTHERN DALLAS COUNTY LINES.
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ARE FORMING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
MOVING EAST AT 20 MILES AN HOUR.  BIG CONCERN IS WHETHER OR NOT
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT NORTH AND ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH INTO DFW
AREA.  SINCE WE ARE PAST MAX HEATING...I DONT THINK STORMS WILL
REDEVELOP NORTHWARD INTO DFW AREA.  STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STAY
15-30 MILES SOUTH OF DFW AND DAL...BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE
SITUATION.  AFTER SUNSET STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE NIGHT... BECOMING SOUTH 5-15 MPH BY MID
MORNING TUESDAY.  59

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM GLEN ROSE SOUTHEAST TO
PALESTINE. A DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM GLEN ROSE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO
BROWNWOOD. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S.ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE BOUNDARIES BUT WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT THE RISK OF STORMS BECOMING SEVERE IS SLIGHT. PRECIP SHOULD
END THIS EVENING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN. THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND THIS
AFTERNOON IS HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. AS IT DOES THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
LIFT TO THE NORTH RETURNING MOISTURE TO ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY EVENING. IN THIS UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW WILL BE SHORTWAVES. ALL
MODELS HANDLE EACH OF THESE MINOR DISTURBANCE DIFFERENTLY IN TIMING
AND STRENGTH.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT THE
POPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIME OF THESE TWO DISTURBANCES AND DRIED
THE FORECAST DURING THE REMAINING TIME FRAMES. EVEN THESE TWO
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL DEPEND GREATLY UPON THE LOCATION OF THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY INTEGRATION WITH NEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
GENERATED FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

BY LATE THIS WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT RETURNING THE REGION
TO A DRIER EARLY SUMMER LIKE WEATHER.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX   69  93  73  91 /   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX               72  95  74  95 /  20   0   0   0
PARIS, TX              69  90  73  88 /   0   0   0  20
DENTON, TX             68  93  72  90 /   0   0   0  20
MCKINNEY, TX           70  92  73  90 /   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX             70  93  73  92 /   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX            72  92  74  92 /   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX          73  93  74  93 /  20   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX             72  96  74  96 /  20   0   0   0
&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
&&

82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
515 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-011100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
515 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CANTON....CLEBURNE TO EASTLAND LINE.
CONVERGENCE ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. ALL STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE ONCE SURFACE HEATING
IS LOST. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A SERIES OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INTERACT WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 9 PM ACROSS THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
757 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     HAIL            MEXIA                    31.68N  96.48W
05/31/2004  0.75 INCH       LIMESTONE           TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            0.75 INCH HAIL IN MEXIA

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
812 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     HAIL            7 NE WACO                31.64N  97.10W
05/31/2004  1.00 INCH       MCLENNAN            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN AXTELL 7 NE OF WACO.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
818 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     HAIL            7 NE WACO                31.64N  97.10W
05/31/2004  1.75 INCH       MCLENNAN            TX   DPS TROOPER

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL IN AXTELL 7 NE OF WACO.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
819 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 PM     HAIL            2 E TROY                 31.20N  97.27W
05/31/2004  1.75 INCH       BELL                TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLFBALL HAIL 2 EAST OF TROY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
821 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST   ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 PM     HAIL            7 W LOTT                 31.21N  97.15W
05/31/2004  1.75 INCH       FALLS               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLFBALL HAIL 7 WEST OF LOTT