Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1038 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING INTO TENNESSEE TUESDAY EVENING
WILL CONTINUE PRESSING SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE ARRIVAL ON THE GEORGIA
BORDER WILL BE AROUND MIDNIGHT. SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT
ENTERS THE STATE WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN TIME.
HOWEVER...SYSTEM MAY LIVE LONG ENOUGH TO REACH DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF ATLANTA METROPOLITAN AREA AND THE CARROLLTON
AREA. THIS IS BASED ON A LOOK AT THETA-E DATA ON ETA MODEL.

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
948 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-140747-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-CRAWFORD-
CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DE KALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-FANNIN-FAYETTE-
FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-
HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-
OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-
SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-
TELFAIR-TOOMBS-TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-
WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
948 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTH GEORGIA
TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A BOW ECHO OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY HAS DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THE COMPLEX IS MOVING SOUTH AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN
EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA GEORGIA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOW ECHO AS IT MOVES INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT LARGE HAIL
...DAMAGING WINDS AND INTENSE LIGHTNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM CALHOUN TO
DAHLONEGA. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
BETWEEN THE HOURS OF MIDNIGHT AND 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH GEORGIA...AS THE BOW ECHO AND CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVE INTO
EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS COMPLEX WILL LEAD TO
GREATER INSTABILITY. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 70S.
CAPE WILL BE INCREASING TO 2500 TO 3000. HELICITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50. LIFTED INDICES WILL DECREASE TO AROUND
MINUS 6. THIS MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WINDS
OF 75 MPH OR GREATER AND LARGE HAIL AND INTENSE LIGHTNING.

THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING THE STATE WITH
DIVERGENT WINDS AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&
FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
818 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             ROCHELLE                31.95N 83.46W
07/13/2004  0.75 INCH        WILCOX             GA   CO-OP OBSERVER

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W ABBEVILLE           31.99N 83.37W
07/13/2004                   WILCOX             GA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON ROADS BETWEEN ABBEVILLE AND
            ROCHELLE. POWER LINES ALSO DOWN.

&&

PAG