Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
315 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

.SHORT TERM...
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS FORECAST AREA RELATIVELY DRY COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING STATES.  CONVECTION THIS MORNING STABILIZED THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN WITH GOOD HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO RETURN.  DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHILE AREAS TO OUR
NORTH...SOUTH AND WEST ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 70S MOST PLACES.
ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED ENOUGH THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR REACHING SEVERE LIMITS.  SPC HAS ISSUED
A WATCH BOX FOR NORTHWEST GEORGIA AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTH...WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THEM
SEVERE...ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.

MODELS INDICATING FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DEVIATE AS FAR AS EXACT TIMING.  WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT...MUCH OF CONVECTION
WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA TOMORROW.
CONTINUE TO BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED.  WILL CONTINUE DRY
FORECAST INTO THE BEGINNING OF WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY THE END OF WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA.  GFS HAS DIFFICULTIES WITH EXACT TIMING OF FEATURES
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA     72 92 70 88 / 30 10 10 10
ATHENS      71 93 69 91 / 30 10 10 10
GAINESVILLE 68 90 69 88 / 30 10 10 10
ROME        70 92 68 92 / 30 10 10 10
COLUMBUS    75 97 71 92 / 30 20 10 10
MACON       76 95 70 92 / 30 20 10 10
&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

 12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
600 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-141600-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-CRAWFORD-
CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DE KALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-FANNIN-FAYETTE-
FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-
HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-
OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-
SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-
TELFAIR-TOOMBS-TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-
WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
600 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO
REACH EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA LATE TODAY...THEN MOVE TO NEAR AN
ATLANTA TO ATHENS LINE BY MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
IS ALSO LIKELY.

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH CAPES EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 2000 TO
3000 RANGE...LIFTED INDICES OF -3 TO -7 AND AND A LOW LEVEL JET
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE. THE BEST TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
FROM 3 PM TO MIDNIGHT PM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&
FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
145 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

GAZ009-016-024-027-038-039-141900-
BANKS-MADISON-OGLETHORPE-TOWNS-WHITE-WILKES-
145 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 629 HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 629 THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR...
TOWNS...WHITE...BANKS...MADISON...OGLETHORPE AND WILKES COUNTIES HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
340 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

GAZ001-002-142015-
340 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA-SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS
IN DADE AND WALKER COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 336 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF WILDWOOD...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.  WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS.  THE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY BUT IF THEY REDEVELOP...A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY. FOR THIS AREA.  STAY
TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR FURTHER IMPORTANT UPDATES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
343 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

GAZ006-008-142030-
343 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS IN UNION AND
FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 341 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER COPPERHILL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS OR EVEN WELL
AHEAD OF THE STORMS.

THE THREAT FROM THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 430 PM EDT.