Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
515 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

.AVIATION...
WEATHER...A COLD FRONT ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER WILL MOVE BE OVER
SOUTH GEORGIA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PLUS AN
APPROACHING LOW AND UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE ATL-AHN AREA AROUND
00Z...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF EITHER AIRPORT BEING AFFECTED IS
AROUND 10%...THE ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY WILL HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED
BY THE TIME ANY OUTFLOW OR OTHER GENERATIONAL MECHANISM REACH THE
CSG-MCN AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER THERE WILL LIKELY BE LINGERING CIRRUS FROM THE
STORMS UNTIL AROUND 06Z.

CEILINGS...VFR THROUGH PERIOD UNLESS A STORM ENTERS AIRPORT
AREA....MOST LIKELY AHN LOCAL IFR IN TSTMS AROUND 2300Z.

VISIBILITIES...VFR EXCEPT LOCAL 4SM BR AHN 10Z-13Z.

WINDS...WESTERLY 10KT EXCEPTY G60KT NEAR TSTMS.

.SHORT TERM...
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS FORECAST AREA RELATIVELY DRY COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING STATES.  CONVECTION THIS MORNING STABILIZED THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN WITH GOOD HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO RETURN.  DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE AREA ARE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...WHILE AREAS TO OUR
NORTH...SOUTH AND WEST ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 70S MOST PLACES.
ATMOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED ENOUGH THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR REACHING SEVERE LIMITS.  SPC HAS ISSUED
A WATCH BOX FOR NORTHWEST GEORGIA AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTH...WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THEM
SEVERE...ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.

MODELS INDICATING FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DEVIATE AS FAR AS EXACT TIMING.  WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS BEHIND FRONT...MUCH OF CONVECTION
WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA TOMORROW.
CONTINUE TO BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED.  WILL CONTINUE DRY
FORECAST INTO THE BEGINNING OF WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN BY THE END OF WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA.  GFS HAS DIFFICULTIES WITH EXACT TIMING OF FEATURES
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA     72 92 70 88 / 30 10 10 10
ATHENS      71 93 69 91 / 30 10 10 10
GAINESVILLE 68 90 69 88 / 30 10 10 10
ROME        70 92 68 92 / 30 10 10 10
COLUMBUS    75 97 71 92 / 30 20 10 10
MACON       76 95 70 92 / 30 20 10 10
&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

 12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
449 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-150248-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-CRAWFORD-
CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DE KALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-FANNIN-FAYETTE-
FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-
HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-
OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-
SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-
TELFAIR-TOOMBS-TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-
WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
449 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO
REACH EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA AROUND SUNSET...THEN MOVE TO NEAR AN
ATLANTA TO ATHENS LINE BY MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 70 MPH...LARGE HAIL. INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WITH CAPES EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE 3000 TO 4000 RANGE......HELICITIES TO NEAR 100 AND LIFTED
INDICES OF -4 TO -7 AND AND A LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA...A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. AN UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE IN THE E AREA...PRODUCING A DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
FROM 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT PM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&
FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
145 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

GAZ009-016-024-027-038-039-141900-
BANKS-MADISON-OGLETHORPE-TOWNS-WHITE-WILKES-
145 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 629 HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 629 THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR...
TOWNS...WHITE...BANKS...MADISON...OGLETHORPE AND WILKES COUNTIES HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
340 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

GAZ001-002-142015-
340 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PEA-SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS
IN DADE AND WALKER COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 336 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF WILDWOOD...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 45 MPH.  WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS.  THE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY BUT IF THEY REDEVELOP...A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY. FOR THIS AREA.  STAY
TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR FURTHER IMPORTANT UPDATES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
343 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

GAZ006-008-142030-
343 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS IN UNION AND
FANNIN COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 341 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER COPPERHILL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS OR EVEN WELL
AHEAD OF THE STORMS.

THE THREAT FROM THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 430 PM EDT.