Flash Flood Warning 214, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
930 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

.UPDATE DISCUSSION...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY UNTIL 4PM WEDNESDAY. WE DONT SEE THIS
CHANGING AT THIS TIME.

THE COUNTY WARNING FORECAST AREA...(CWFA)...CONTINUES TO BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SEVERAL FEATURES. ONE BEING THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW OFF
THE GULF AND THE RIDGE PARKED TO THE EAST. THE SECOND BEING THE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE PACIFIC/BAJA REGION AS SEEN BY WV/IR
SATELLITE LOOPS. A WEAK RIDGE IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ARE DOMINATED BY WEAK TROFING. MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
THE EASTERN GULF RIDGE REINFORCES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS FORECASTED
TO DO SO THIS WEEKEND.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY WET CONDITIONS FOR THE CWFA
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY DIFFERENCES HAVE BEEN THE AMOUNT OF
RAIN FORECASTED TO FALL. BUT ALL THE MODELS AGREE WITH THE ONGOING
RAIN EVENT ENDING BY THIS WEEKEND.

THE 4AM FORECAST PACKAGE HAS EVERYTHING HANDLED OK.
WILL MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BRING THE GRIDS AND FORECAST
MORE INLINE WITH THE CHANGING WEATHER TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
S TX REMAINS SETUP FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT
36-48 HOURS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LESSENING RAIN CHCS FROM THE
WEST BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. S TX CONTS TO BE ON THE NW
PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE GLFMEX...KEEPING A MID LEVEL TAP OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS S TX FROM MEXICO.  S/W ENERGY IS BEING
EJECTED ACRS NRN MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TX AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPR
TROF OVR CA/BAJA. SEE NO REASON NOT TO EXTEND THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH
THRU WED AFTN FOR THE ENTIRE CWA GIVEN THIS SCENARIO.

CURRENT GFS/ECMWF MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE GULF RDG TO BUILD
WESTWARD WITH TIME AND PUSHING THE MONSOON WEST TO THE SW CONUS.
THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER/STRONGER IN BUILDING THE RDG INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES THAN THE ECMWF SO HAVE KEPT CHC POPS INTO THU...HOWEVER BY
THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EITHER MODEL SHOWS A
MUCH DRIER WX PATTERN...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF NWLY FLOW MCSS
SKIRTING THE NERN CWA.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING
FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS UNTIL 4PM WEDNESDAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
600 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-301100-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
600 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL
COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE
FLOODING WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
THURSDAY LEADING TO LOWER CHANCES OF RAINS FRIDAY INTO THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
721 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 AM     FLASH FLOOD      GARNER STATE PARK       29.57N 99.74W
06/29/2004                   UVALDE             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            12 FEET OF WATER IN GARNER STATE PARK.

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
826 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0746 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NW MEDINA             29.83N 99.29W
06/29/2004                   BANDERA            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 2107 NORTHWEST OF HIGHWAY 16 CLOSED.

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
940 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LEAKEY                  29.72N 99.76W
06/29/2004                   REAL               TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAYS 335,336,337,55,1120,2631 CLOSED.

0855 AM     FLASH FLOOD      UVALDE                  29.22N 99.78W
06/29/2004                   UVALDE             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL WATER RESCUES OF PEOPLE IN TREES.

&&

VL/DC