Flash Flood Warning 219, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

000 
WGUS74 KEWX 292023
FFSSAT
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-149-163-171-177-187-209-
255-259-265-285-287-299-325-385-453-463-491-493-507-292300-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
322 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT FOR
WILLIAMSON...TRAVIS...BASTROP...LEE...FAYETTE...GONZALES...
HAYS...COMAL...CALDWELL...GUADALUPE...BEXAR...WILSON...ATASCOSA...
MEDINA...KARNES...DEWITT...LAVACA...KERR...KENDALL...BANDERA...
BLANCO...GILLESPIE...BURNET...LLANO...REAL...UVALDE...ZAVALA...
AND DIMMIT COUNTIES...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS CONTINUED TO INDICATE
RAIN FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

THIS AFTERNOON A SUMMER HEAVY RAIN EVENT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED 3 TO 7 INCH
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

AT 322 PM CDT...A LARGE AREA OF RAIN...FROM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WAS FROM LEAKEY TO CARRIZAO SPRINGS AND
EAST TO BURNET...SAN ANTONIO...GEORGETOWN...AUSTIN...GIDDINGS...
SCHULENBURG AND HALLETTSVILLE.  MOVEMENT WAS NORTH AT 20 MPH.
THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS 20 TO 40 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY
THE THUNDERSTORMS.

JUNE 2004 HAS BEEN VERY WET OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.  SOILS ARE SATURATED AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY
RUN OFF.  IF YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR A FLOOD PRONE AREA...BE PREPARED TO
MOVE TO SAFETY OR HIGHER GROUND QUICKLY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED OR
FLOODING IS OBSERVED.

MOTORISTS TRAVELING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD EXERCISE
EXTREME CAUTION IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  BE ESPECIALLY
CAUTIOUS IN LOW LYING AREAS...NEAR LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND
NEAR CREEK OR RIVERS.  DO NOT DRIVE INTO WATER THAT COVERS
THE ROADWAY.  REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DONT DROWN.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...RIVER FLOODING COULD
ALSO BE A CONCERN.  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RUN OFF QUICKLY AND CAUSE
RAPID RISES ON AREA CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS.  IF YOU LIVE NEAR A
CREEK...STREAM OR RIVER...BE PREPARED TO MOVE QUICKLY TO HIGHER
GROUND IF A WARNING IS ISSUED OR FLOODING IS OBSERVED.

WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY...RESIDENTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST AND WARNINGS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
230 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

.DISCUSSION...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT IS IN PLACE FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AND THE HILL COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 4PM WEDNESDAY.

A ANALYSIS OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL DATA REFLECTS THE FOLLOWING:
1.A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS LOCATED TO THE EAST AND THIS RIDGE IS
PROVIDING LOW LEVEL MOIST INFLOW OFF THE GULF INTO TEXAS.
2.A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE NORTHWEST AND IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH
TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST.
3.A UPPER LEVEL INFLOW TAP FROM THE PACIFIC/BAJA REGION CONTINUES
PROVIDING MOISTURE INTO THE TEXAS. THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
CHANNELED INTO TEXAS BETWEEN THE TWO PRESSURE RIDGES.

THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN RESULTS IN A LOW PRESSURE TROF OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH MOISTURE FUNNELING INTO THIS REGION. AS LONG AS
THE RIDGE TO THE EAST REMAINS DOMINATE...THIS CURRENT SYNOPTIC
SITUATION WILL KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS UNDER THE GUN FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. THE MODELS KEEP THIS TREND IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE SLOWLY ENDING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

MODEL ANALYSIS SHIFTS THE LOW PRESSURE TROF EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OF RAIN MORE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES
THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY HAPPENING. EITHER WAY...MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE FLASH FLOODING RAINS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF A TAD ON THURSDAY. BUT WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES...THEN HIGHER
PRECIPITATION PERCENTAGES WILL BE FORECASTED THERE.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH ENDING THE RAIN EVENT ON THURSDAY. THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS WESTWARD AND THIS WILL CUTOFF THE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE TAP FROM THE PACIFIC. WHAT WILL REMAIN IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...DUE TO HEATING AND THIS WILL BE MAINLY OVER EAST
TEXAS SPILLING OVER INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

MODEL DIFFERENCES HAVE THE GFS AND ECMWF TRENDS THE GULF RIDGE
WESTWARD AND PUSHING THE MOISTURE TROF INTO WEST TEXAS. THE GFS IS
FASTER WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT THE END RESULTS ARE THE SAME.
BY SUNDAY THE 4TH OF JULY...MODEL SHOWS A DRIER AIRMASS OVER TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              74  89  72  92 /  70  70  50  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  88  71  91 /  70  70  50  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72  91  74  94 /  50  50  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  88  73  92 /  70  70  50  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING
FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS UNTIL 4PM WEDNESDAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
600 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-301100-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
600 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL
COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT...GRADUALLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXTEND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE
FLOODING WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
THURSDAY LEADING TO LOWER CHANCES OF RAINS FRIDAY INTO THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
940 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LEAKEY                  29.72N 99.76W
06/29/2004                   REAL               TX   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAYS 335,336,337,55,1120,2631 CLOSED.

0855 AM     FLASH FLOOD      UVALDE                  29.22N 99.78W
06/29/2004                   UVALDE             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL WATER RESCUES OF PEOPLE IN TREES.

&&

VL/DC