Flash Flood Warning 205, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
838 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2004

.UPDATE...ONLY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO UP THE
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO ONGOING
CONVECTION AND MOVEMENT (PROPAGATION). AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST
SOUTH OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE LOWER RIO GRANDE PLAINS
CLIMBED INTO THE MID 90S...WHICH WILL ADD ADDITIONAL FUEL TO KEEP
THESE STORMS GENERATING INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
MID AFTERNOON...THE FRANKENSTEIN MIX OF THE MID LATITUDES AND
TROPICS. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE AVERAGED ANOTHER 1/2 TO 1 INCH SINCE 7
AM...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS ESTIMATED IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES IN SOUTH
CENTRAL VAL VERDE COUNTY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...MOIST GULF AIR...
WEAK STEERING WINDS...AND NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REMAIN OVER
TEXAS. THUS...WILL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 4 PM
TUESDAY...WITH POSSIBILITY IT MAY GO INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SIMILAR
AMOUNTS...ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES WIDESPREAD...WITH ISOLATED 4-6 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY 4 PM WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND
REMAINS MOSTLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW
AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS MAY ALLOW NOCTURNAL MCS TO MOVE DOWN INTO
CENTRAL TX...BUT THE MAIN EXPECTATION IS VERY LOW POP...SEA-BREEZE
ACTIVITY. IN OTHER WORDS...MORE TYPICAL JULY WEATHER. SIMILARLY...
TEMPS WILL MOVE UP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S BY FRIDAY...POSSIBLY
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S BY INDEPENDENCE DAY.

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TIL 4 PM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

02/04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
712 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2004

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-291100-
ATASCOSA-BANDERA-BASTROP-BEXAR-BLANCO-BURNET-CALDWELL-COMAL-DEWITT-
DIMMIT-EDWARDS-FAYETTE-FRIO-GILLESPIE-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-HAYS-KARNES-
KENDALL-KERR-KINNEY-LAVACA-LEE-LLANO-MAVERICK-MEDINA-REAL-TRAVIS-
UVALDE-VAL VERDE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-ZAVALA-
712 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL
COUNTY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXTEND THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE THURSDAY LEADING TO LOWER CHANCES OF RAINS FRIDAY INTO THE
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.