Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
815 PM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND
RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEAST.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND ALSO RAPIDLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST.  THE BRO SOUNDING THIS EVENING SHOWED A GOOD CAP WITH DRY
AIR ABOVE 5 THSD FEET.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AS THEY APPROACH THE VALLEY.  WILL KEEP POPS AS IS DUE TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CAP ERODING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  WILL
UPDATE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
MORNING.  PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.  NO
UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...5H TROFFING OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. WILL LIFT OUT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ON TUES WHICH WILL
ALLOW 5H RIDGING TO BUILD IN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS DRYING
OUT THE ATMS AND RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPS AND NIL POPS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.  A WEST COAST 5H CLOSED LOW WILL PUSH
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE U.S. BY NEXT SATURDAY WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WILL TIGHTEN THE PGF FOR THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK INCREASING THE SURFACE WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LATE
SEASON COLD FRONT. HAVE UPDATED MWS AT 23Z TO ANTICIPATE ARRIVAL IN
NRN MARINE ZONES AROUND 05Z. HAVE PLACED STRONG WIND/HAIL WORDING IN
PM CWF UPDATE. SCA STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES SUN THRU
MON AS SFC LOW SPINS UP ON BNDRY OVER OPEN GULF WATERS TO E OF
MARINE ZONES. LIGHTER WIND REGIME LOOKS IN STORE FOR TUE AND WED AS
SFC HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MODERATE STRENGTH ON THU AS SFC HIGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER W TX TIGHTENS SPG.
&&

.AVIATION...BRO ASOS LONG-LINE PROBLEM CONTINUES. BELIEVE LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL ENTER CWA BY 03Z. DISTANCE/SPEED TOOL ON SFC BNDRY
SUGGESTS FROPA AT MFE AROUND 06Z AND AT BRO AROUND 09Z. WILL CARRY
TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA THROUGH 12Z AT BRO. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CLGS ALL DAY SUN WITH SOME PATCHY -RA IN POST FRONTAL
STRATUS. WILL UPDATE TAFS N WINDS GUSTING FROM 20 TO 30KTS IN WAKE
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR TXZ248>257.
     SCA TONIGHT FOR GMZ130-150-155-170-175.
&&

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...65
AVIATION/MARINE...62
MESO...MARTINEZ

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1220 AM CDT SUN APR 11 2004

TXZ248>257-111100-
BROOKS-COASTAL CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-HIDALGO-INLAND CAMERON-
INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-KENEDY-STARR-ZAPATA-
1220 PM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH HIDALGO...WILLACY AND CAMERON COUNTIES
SCHEDULED TO RECEIVE THESE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 2 AM. THE ENTIRE
COASTAL WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ARE UNDER A SPECIAL MARINE
WARNING...AS STRONG CONVECTION MOVES OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...CONVECTION WILL HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST OF OUR
REGION...LEAVING LINGERING AREAS OF RAIN AND NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH. LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO LEAVE THE
AREA...AND NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH. MORNING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER MAINLY COASTAL AREAS OF WILLACY...EASTERN
HIDALGO...AND CAMERON COUNTIES THROUGH SUNRISE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION
IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND.

PHILO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
944 PM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 PM     HAIL             N HEBBRONVILLE          27.32N 98.69W
04/10/2004  0.25 INCH        JIM HOGG           TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY CO-OP OBSERVER

0934 PM     HAIL             HEBBRONVILLE            27.32N 98.69W
04/10/2004  1.00 INCH        JIM HOGG           TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

0934 PM     HAIL             HEBBRONVILLE            27.32N 98.69W
04/10/2004  1.00 INCH        JIM HOGG           TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

0934 PM     HAIL             N HEBBRONVILLE          27.32N 98.69W
04/10/2004  1.00 INCH        JIM HOGG           TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED BY CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

SM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...COR FOR TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
944 PM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 PM     HAIL             N HEBBRONVILLE          27.32N 98.69W
04/10/2004  1.00 INCH        JIM HOGG           TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED BY CO-OP OBSERVER
&&

SM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1135 PM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1131 PM     HAIL             HEBBRONVILLE            27.32N 98.69W
04/10/2004  0.88 INCH        JIM HOGG           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            3/4 INCH HAIL REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SM