Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
815 PM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

.SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND
RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHEAST.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND ALSO RAPIDLY MOVING
SOUTHEAST.  THE BRO SOUNDING THIS EVENING SHOWED A GOOD CAP WITH DRY
AIR ABOVE 5 THSD FEET.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AS THEY APPROACH THE VALLEY.  WILL KEEP POPS AS IS DUE TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CAP ERODING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.  WILL
UPDATE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY
MORNING.  PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.  NO
UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...5H TROFFING OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. WILL LIFT OUT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ON TUES WHICH WILL
ALLOW 5H RIDGING TO BUILD IN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS DRYING
OUT THE ATMS AND RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPS AND NIL POPS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.  A WEST COAST 5H CLOSED LOW WILL PUSH
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE U.S. BY NEXT SATURDAY WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WILL TIGHTEN THE PGF FOR THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK INCREASING THE SURFACE WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LATE
SEASON COLD FRONT. HAVE UPDATED MWS AT 23Z TO ANTICIPATE ARRIVAL IN
NRN MARINE ZONES AROUND 05Z. HAVE PLACED STRONG WIND/HAIL WORDING IN
PM CWF UPDATE. SCA STILL LOOKS LIKELY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES SUN THRU
MON AS SFC LOW SPINS UP ON BNDRY OVER OPEN GULF WATERS TO E OF
MARINE ZONES. LIGHTER WIND REGIME LOOKS IN STORE FOR TUE AND WED AS
SFC HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MODERATE STRENGTH ON THU AS SFC HIGH MOVES
FARTHER EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER W TX TIGHTENS SPG.
&&

.AVIATION...BRO ASOS LONG-LINE PROBLEM CONTINUES. BELIEVE LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL ENTER CWA BY 03Z. DISTANCE/SPEED TOOL ON SFC BNDRY
SUGGESTS FROPA AT MFE AROUND 06Z AND AT BRO AROUND 09Z. WILL CARRY
TEMPO GROUPS FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA THROUGH 12Z AT BRO. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CLGS ALL DAY SUN WITH SOME PATCHY -RA IN POST FRONTAL
STRATUS. WILL UPDATE TAFS N WINDS GUSTING FROM 20 TO 30KTS IN WAKE
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR TXZ248>257.
     SCA TONIGHT FOR GMZ130-150-155-170-175.
&&

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...65
AVIATION/MARINE...62
MESO...MARTINEZ

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE FOR WORDING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
530 PM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

TXZ248>257-110900-
BROOKS-COASTAL CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-HIDALGO-INLAND CAMERON-
INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-KENEDY-STARR-ZAPATA-
530 PM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
CREATE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AROUND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF ZAPATA...BROOKS...JIM HOGG AND KENEDY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN SATURATED BY RECENT RAINS.
FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH NOON SUNDAY. BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE MOVED
NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION...LEAVING LINGERING AREAS OF RAIN AND NORTH
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO LEAVE THE AREA...AND NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH.
MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS CLOSELY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

SPEECE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
944 PM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 PM     HAIL             N HEBBRONVILLE          27.32N 98.69W
04/10/2004  0.25 INCH        JIM HOGG           TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY CO-OP OBSERVER

0934 PM     HAIL             HEBBRONVILLE            27.32N 98.69W
04/10/2004  1.00 INCH        JIM HOGG           TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

0934 PM     HAIL             HEBBRONVILLE            27.32N 98.69W
04/10/2004  1.00 INCH        JIM HOGG           TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

0934 PM     HAIL             N HEBBRONVILLE          27.32N 98.69W
04/10/2004  1.00 INCH        JIM HOGG           TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED BY CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

SM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...COR FOR TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
944 PM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 PM     HAIL             N HEBBRONVILLE          27.32N 98.69W
04/10/2004  1.00 INCH        JIM HOGG           TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED BY CO-OP OBSERVER
&&

SM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1135 PM CDT SAT APR 10 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1131 PM     HAIL             HEBBRONVILLE            27.32N 98.69W
04/10/2004  0.88 INCH        JIM HOGG           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            3/4 INCH HAIL REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SM