Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
501 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

.SYNOPSIS...RUNNING LATE THIS MORNING WITH ALL THE WORKLOAD RELATED
TO IVAN. SO...ILL KEEP IT SHORT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...HURRICANE IVAN HAS MADE LANDFALL IN BALDWIN COUNTY
ALABAMA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT AROUND 14 MPH.
THE CENTER OF IVAN WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA LATER THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TROPICAL FORCE WINDS WILL BE
FELT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE
WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 75 MPH...MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WERE
THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS.

SOME OTHER THREATS OF IVAN WILL BE ISOLATED TORNADOES AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE BETWEEN 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN
AND POSSIBLY HIGHER RATES AROUND SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN BANDS.
THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE CENTERED AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT
OF THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS DONE TO THE EXTENDED. IVAN LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL STALL WELL OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA...PER GFS. ETA
LOOKS TO STALL THE SYSTEM OVER ALABAMA...BUT SINCE THE ETA HAS BEEN
KIND OF OFF ON IVANS TRACK...DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MORE ACCURATE
GFS SOLUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

GADSDEN    77 71 78 65 81 / 99 99 90 20
ANNISTON   77 70 77 65 82 / 99 99 90 20
BIRMINGHAM 78 71 80 66 85 / 99 99 80 20
TUSCALOOSA 78 72 83 66 87 / 99 99 70 10
CALERA     78 72 80 66 85 / 99 99 80 10
AUBURN     78 71 79 66 86 / 99 99 80 10
MONTGOMERY 78 73 83 67 87 / 99 99 70 10
TROY       78 72 82 67 88 / 99 99 70 10
&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL AREAS.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL AREAS.

&&

10-MONTANEZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
108 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

ALZ011>015-017>050-162107-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
108 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...(THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)

...HIGH WIND WARNING ALL SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
...FLOOD WATCH ALL SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
...ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE ALL SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

HURRICANE IVAN HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM...AND IS
WEAKENING RAPIDLY.  HOWEVER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.  HIGH WINDS...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED WEAK
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS IVAN MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.  THIS IS
A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION AND ALL ALABAMIANS ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY
ABREAST OF THE LATEST WATCHES AND WARNINGS.  EMERGENCY ACTION PLANS
SHOULD ALREADY BE IMPLEMENTED.

AREA RIVERS REMAIN A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAHABA EASTWARD.
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES CAN BE EXPECTED AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS.  ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO
5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SEE SPSBHM...NPWBHM...AND FFABHM FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IVAN WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
SOME ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.

BEYOND FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1028 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

ALZ011>015-017>050-161915-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1028 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

...SPECIAL TROPICAL STORM IVAN STATEMENT FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR ALL COUNTIES IN CENTRAL ALABAMA SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HIGH WIND WARNING...IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.
SEE THE LATEST BHMNPWBHM FOR DETAILS.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...FOR THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.  SEE THE LATEST BHMFFABHM FOR DETAILS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AS OF 9 AM THURSDAY MORNING...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN
WAS NORTHWEST OF GREENVILLE IN BUTLER COUNTY...ABOUT 50 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MONTGOMERY...AND 125 MILES SOUTH OF BIRMINGHAM. IVAN IS
MOVING GENERALLY NORTH AT 17 MPH. IVAN HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM...BUT STILL PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH IN THE
ROTATING BANDS.

...WIND AND RAINFALL IMPACTS...
AT THIS TIME...IVAN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF
RAIN GENERALLY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING HIGHER AMOUNTS. ADDITIONALLY...IVAN WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AND NUMEROUS TORNADOES. THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF THESE THREATS
AND THE ASSOCIATED INTENSITIES ARE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON THE PATH OF
IVAN. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE CENTER OF IVAN WILL BE PASS WEST OF
MONTGOMERY BY NOON...AND OVER BIRMINGHAM AROUND 5 PM TODAY. SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE OCCURRING IN MONTGOMERY...CLANTON...
BIRMINGHAM AND TUSCALOOSA WITH GUSTS OF 70 TO 75 MPH.

...CALLS TO ACTION...
WITH THE COMBINED THREAT OF SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...
WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE...STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS...AND POWER
OUTAGES WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR.

BE PREPARED TO ACT QUICKLY IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR
AREA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND UPDATES CONCERNING DANGEROUS HURRICANE
IVAN.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2 PM THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
152 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

ALZ041>042-044-046-049>050-161952-
152 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HAVE BEEN CLEARED FROM WATCH NUMBER 828...

AUTAUGA           BARBOUR           BULLOCK           LOWNDES
MONTGOMERY        PIKE

ALZ017>021-024>029-035>038-043-045-047>048-161952-
152 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES REMAIN IN WATCH NUMBER 828...

BLOUNT            CALHOUN           CHAMBERS          CHEROKEE
CHILTON           CLAY              CLEBURNE          COOSA
ELMORE            ETOWAH            JEFFERSON         LEE
MACON             RANDOLPH          RUSSELL           SHELBY
ST. CLAIR         TALLADEGA         TALLAPOOSA