Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
928 PM MDT MON OCT 4 2004

.UPDATE...SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TRIGGERING
STORMS WEST OF ABQ METRO ATTM. THIS WAVE IS MOVING STEADILY ENE
WHICH SHOULD SPELL SCT STORMS FOR NC PART OF STATE AND INTO THE
EAST. MEANWHILE STORMS OVER SE PLAINS TRYING TO BACK BUILD IN UNDER
SLIGHTLY DIVERGENT THICKNESS PATTERN AND IN CONTINUED SE LOW LEVEL
FLOW. COVERAGE NOT VERY EXTENSIVE RIGHT NOW BUT THESE TWO AREAS MAY
HOOK UP LATER TONIGHT SO WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED POPS FOR MOST AREAS
OF THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST...BUT REMOVE NUMEROUS FOR MOST
AREAS EXCEPT FAR SE.

ADDITIONALLY...UPPER LOW OVER AZ/UT BORDER GENERATING QUITE A BIT OF
CONVECTION AND IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS. COULD MAKE IT INTO NW PART
OF STATE BY DAYBREAK.

NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND EAST WIND FORECAST RIGHT ON
TRACK...KD

.PREV DISCUSSION...235 PM MDT MON OCT 4 2004
PLENTY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPOACHING THE AREA COMBINED WITH A SURFACE
FRONT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS. A STRONG COLD PUSH WILL RESULT IN STRONG EAST CANYON WINDS
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY
RAIN REMAINS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. SOME OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS ABOVE 10000 FEET COULD
RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL. UPR LVL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND WILL KEEP AN UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE ONLY REAL BREAK IN THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL COME DURING THE WEEKEND WHEN A MINOR RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL TROFS. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON NEW MEXICO...16
&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TUESDAY NMC005-009-011-041.
&&

19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT MON OCT 4 2004

NMZ001>021-026-051200-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-QUAY COUNTY-
ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
WESTCENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
600 AM MDT MON OCT 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GREATEST FROM THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF I 25 AND SOUTH OF I 40. THE GREATEST
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANDIA...MANZANO...CAPITAN AND NORTHERN SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN SOCORRO...TORRANCE...GUADALUPE...DE BACA...CHAVES...CURRY
AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL TOLL FREE
1-888-386-7637 WITH REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING.

KJ