Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WATCH PORTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
235 PM MDT MON OCT 4 2004

.DISCUSSION...PLENTY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROF APPOACHING THE AREA COMBINED WITH
A SURFACE FRONT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS. A STRONG COLD PUSH WILL RESULT IN STRONG EAST CANYON
WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR
HEAVY RAIN REMAINS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. SOME OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS ABOVE 10000 FEET COULD
RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL. UPR LVL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND WILL KEEP AN UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN IN
PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE ONLY REAL BREAK IN THE
UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL COME DURING THE WEEKEND WHEN A MINOR RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL TROFS. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON................ 048/070 045/068 042 16355
GALLUP.................... 038/071 037/069 035 16233
GRANTS.................... 041/068 039/068 037 16344
GLENWOOD.................. 048/076 049/076 044 16222
CHAMA..................... 034/055 033/057 032 16566
LOS ALAMOS................ 042/057 039/060 041 16677
RED RIVER................. 033/050 030/053 028 16688
TAOS...................... 041/059 038/062 036 16577
SANTA FE.................. 043/059 039/062 040 16677
SANTA FE AIRPORT.......... 046/063 042/065 042 16677
ESPANOLA.................. 043/064 042/067 039 16566
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS....... 053/070 050/071 051 16577
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY........ 048/070 048/072 046 16566
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS..... 051/068 047/069 048 16677
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA..... 051/069 050/071 050 16566
SOCORRO................... 052/070 049/073 047 16566
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST... 044/063 041/063 042 16788
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA......... 041/064 038/065 037 16788
CARRIZOZO................. 052/065 049/069 048 16577
RUIDOSO................... 049/061 046/063 045 16555
RATON..................... 041/058 038/064 039 16577
LAS VEGAS................. 041/056 038/062 040 16788
ROY....................... 041/060 043/064 042 16577
CLAYTON................... 045/060 046/064 048 16467
SANTA ROSA................ 048/065 047/068 046 16788
TUCUMCARI................. 052/066 048/068 052 16677
FORT SUMNER............... 051/065 050/069 051 16788
CLOVIS.................... 052/065 053/066 053 16788
PORTALES.................. 053/065 053/066 053 16788
ROSWELL................... 059/070 056/071 054 16788
&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TUESDAY NMC005-009-011-041.
&&

16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT MON OCT 4 2004

NMZ001>021-026-051200-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-NORTHWEST PLATEAU-QUAY COUNTY-
ROOSEVELT COUNTY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
WESTCENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
600 AM MDT MON OCT 4 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GREATEST FROM THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF I 25 AND SOUTH OF I 40. THE GREATEST
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANDIA...MANZANO...CAPITAN AND NORTHERN SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN SOCORRO...TORRANCE...GUADALUPE...DE BACA...CHAVES...CURRY
AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL TOLL FREE
1-888-386-7637 WITH REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING.

KJ