Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 942

May 11, 20034 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 11, 2003, 10:30 AM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 11, 2003, 10:30 AM EDT (14:30 UTC)
Expired
May 11, 2003, 12:30 PM EDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 77 counties

Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Wyoming County, NY, Ashland County, OH, Ashtabula County, OH, Athens County, OH, Belmont County, OH, Carroll County, OH, Columbiana County, OH, Coshocton County, OH, Cuyahoga County, OH, Geauga County, OH, Guernsey County, OH, Harrison County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Holmes County, OH, Jefferson County, OH, Knox County, OH, Lake County, OH, Mahoning County, OH, Medina County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Monroe County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Muskingum County, OH, Noble County, OH, Perry County, OH, Portage County, OH, Stark County, OH, Summit County, OH, Trumbull County, OH, Tuscarawas County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Washington County, OH, Wayne County, OH, Allegheny County, PA, Armstrong County, PA, Beaver County, PA, Butler County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Cameron County, PA, Clarion County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Crawford County, PA, Elk County, PA, Erie County, PA, Fayette County, PA, Forest County, PA, Greene County, PA, Indiana County, PA, Jefferson County, PA, Lawrence County, PA, McKean County, PA, Mercer County, PA, Venango County, PA, Warren County, PA, Washington County, PA, Westmoreland County, PA, Brooke County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Hancock County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Marion County, WV, Marshall County, WV, Monongalia County, WV, Ohio County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Taylor County, WV, Tyler County, WV, Wetzel County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV

The radar

The Pittsburgh radar (KPBZ), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Pittsburgh, PA (KPIT), launched 12:00Z, 2.5 hours before the alert went out and 96 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Pittsburgh, PA at 12:00Z on 2003-05-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1410 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Pittsburgh, PA at 12:00Z on 2003-05-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 188 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1410 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-36 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
703 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
188 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
137 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.6
Supercell composite
4.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

687 
ACUS11 KWNS 111431
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111430 
PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-111630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0942
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0930 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN PA...WRN NY...NRN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111430Z - 111630Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WW
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOON.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL OH...WITH LINE OF CU/TCU ALONG BOUNDARY.  CLOUDS HAVE ERODED
AS MUCH AS 150 MILES AHEAD OF FRONT...ALLOWING AREA TO DESTABILIZE
RAPIDLY.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE MID 60S...AND SBCAPE
VALUES RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG.  STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALL-RISE
COUPLET ALONG FRONT SUGGESTS LARGE SCALE FORCING IS PRESENT...AND
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.  LOW
LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS.


..HART.. 05/11/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

43367812 42307776 40327851 39098042 38838191 39248253
40468242 41488212 42348033 43217885

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 11, 10:07 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Broome, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland and 19 more113 min
May 11, 11:45 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCAllegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Livingston and 2 more5 hr
May 11, 12:32 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBroome, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland, Jefferson and 13 more118 min
May 11, 1:50 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCBroome, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland, Herkimer and 14 more5 hr
May 11, 2:52 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Livingston and 3 more113 min
May 11, 3:54 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBroome, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland, Herkimer and 14 more2 hr
May 10, 11:40 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCWilliams2 hr
May 11, 12:00 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCDefiance, Paulding, Van Wert, Williams6 hr
May 11, 12:28 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Allen, Ashland, Auglaize, Brown, Butler and 44 more2 hr
May 10, 9:28 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Clay, Fayette, Kanawha, Lincoln, Logan and 6 more62 min
May 11, 5:16 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCWayne59 min
May 11, 6:05 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCWayne4 hr
May 11, 3:18 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBerkeley, Jefferson, Morgan117 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.