Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 941
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 11, 2003, 10:07 AM EDT for 25 counties in New York; 16 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 113 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 11, 2003, 10:07 AM EDT (14:07 UTC)
- Expired
- May 11, 2003, 12:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 113 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 41 counties
Allegany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Madison County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY, Yates County, NY, Bradford County, PA, Cameron County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Potter County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, Wyoming County, PA
The radar
The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 2.1 hours before the alert went out and 162 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 281 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -165 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 850 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 51 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 56 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 107 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.5
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
544 ACUS11 KWNS 111407 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111407 NYZ000-PAZ000-111600- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0941 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0907 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NY...CENTRAL PA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111407Z - 111600Z ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST ISOLATED CELLS EMBEDDED IN CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NY/PA HAVE INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST HOUR. THESE STORMS ARE IN A REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND ARE LIKELY WELL ELEVATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SUGGEST THAT STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED. THEREFORE...WW IN NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THESE STORMS. ..HART.. 05/11/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP... 44687551 43167483 41237583 40557732 41267846 42437823 43377829 44297646
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 10:30 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Orleans and 1 more | 2 hr |
| May 11, 11:45 AM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Livingston and 2 more | 5 hr |
| May 11, 12:32 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Broome, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland, Jefferson and 13 more | 118 min |
| May 11, 1:50 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Broome, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland, Herkimer and 14 more | 5 hr |
| May 11, 2:52 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Livingston and 3 more | 113 min |
| May 11, 3:54 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Broome, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland, Herkimer and 14 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.