Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 943
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 11, 2003, 12:32 PM EDT for 19 counties in New York; 27 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 118 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 11, 2003, 12:32 PM EDT (16:32 UTC)
- Expired
- May 11, 2003, 2:30 PM EDT
- In force
- 118 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 46 counties
Broome County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Madison County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Yates County, NY, Adams County, PA, Blair County, PA, Bradford County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Potter County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, Wyoming County, PA, York County, PA
The radar
The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 42 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 4.5 hours before the alert went out and 195 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 281 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -165 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 850 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 51 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 56 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 107 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.5
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
437 ACUS11 KWNS 111632 SWOMCD SPC MCD 111632 NYZ000-PAZ000-111830- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0943 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PA...CENTRAL NY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 111632Z - 111830Z MONITORING INCREASING CU FIELD OVER WEST CENTRAL PA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLE NEW WW. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT TCU OR ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL PA. THIS ACTIVITY IS WELL EAST OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...BUT IN AREA THAT HAS DESTABILIZED RAPIDLY IN THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. SBCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS OR EVEN TORNADOES IN THIS REGION. IF ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE ...NEW TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL PA/NY. ..HART.. 05/11/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX... 44407593 43977521 42897521 41097586 39887646 39727796 40587855 43617726
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 10:07 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Broome, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland and 19 more | 113 min |
| May 11, 10:30 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Orleans and 1 more | 2 hr |
| May 11, 11:45 AM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Livingston and 2 more | 5 hr |
| May 11, 1:50 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Broome, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland, Herkimer and 14 more | 5 hr |
| May 11, 2:52 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Livingston and 3 more | 113 min |
| May 11, 3:54 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Broome, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland, Herkimer and 14 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.