Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 933

May 10, 200311 counties in Indiana; 31 counties in Michigan; Williams County, Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 10, 2003, 10:40 PM EST for 11 counties in Indiana; 31 counties in Michigan; Williams County, Ohio. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 10, 2003, 10:40 PM EST (03:40 UTC)
Expired
May 11, 2003, 12:45 AM EST
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 43 counties

DeKalb County, IN, Elkhart County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, LaPorte County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Noble County, IN, Saint Joseph County, IN, Starke County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Allegan County, MI, Barry County, MI, Bay County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Cass County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Midland County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Ottawa County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Van Buren County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Williams County, OH

The radar

The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 3.7 hours before the alert went out and 163 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2003-05-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 220 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2003-05-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 25 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
220 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-40 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
951 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
25 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
73 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

803 
ACUS11 KWNS 110340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110340 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-110545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0933
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MI THROUGH NRN IND AND NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 110340Z - 110545Z

THREAT FOR TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO
INCREASE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER THIS AREA. TORNADO WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.

SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO FURTHER DEEPENING AS THE EXIT
REGION OF STRONG 100+ KT UPPER JET LIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY.
AS THIS OCCURS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK/STRENGTHEN...RESULTING
IN FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
ALSO DESTABILIZE NWD AS INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTS HIGHER
THETA-E AIR TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.


..DIAL.. 05/11/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

41238683 43848633 43878408 42698288 41058514

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 10, 8:05 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCBenton, Jasper, Lake, Newton, Porter6 hr
May 10, 8:41 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBartholomew, Boone, Brown, Clay, Crawford, Daviess and 39 more2 hr
May 10, 8:45 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCPosey5 hr
May 10, 9:10 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCBartholomew, Boone, Brown, Clark, Clay, Clinton and 40 more5 hr
May 10, 10:56 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Jasper, Lake, Newton, Porter94 min
May 10, 11:00 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCAdams, Allen, Cass, DeKalb, Elkhart, Fulton and 15 more6 hr
May 10, 11:20 PM ESTTornado WatchSPCHarrison, Perry, Spencer6 hr
May 10, 11:28 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Jay, Ohio, Randolph and 4 more2 hr
May 11, 1:46 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBartholomew, Boone, Brown, Clark, Clay, Clinton and 43 more89 min
May 11, 2:56 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Clare, Crawford and 22 more94 min
May 11, 9:30 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshland, Ashtabula, Athens, Belmont, Carroll, Columbiana and 26 more2 hr
May 11, 10:45 AM ESTTornado WatchSPCAshtabula, Belmont, Carroll, Columbiana, Guernsey, Harrison and 5 more5 hr
May 11, 1:52 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshtabula, Belmont, Carroll, Columbiana, Guernsey, Harrison and 5 more113 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.