Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 937

May 11, 200328 counties in Michigan

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 11, 2003, 3:56 AM EDT for 28 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 94 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 11, 2003, 3:56 AM EDT (07:56 UTC)
Expired
May 11, 2003, 5:30 AM EDT
In force
94 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 28 counties

Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Clare County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Huron County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Sanilac County, MI, Tuscola County, MI, Wayne County, MI, Wexford County, MI

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 139 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2003-05-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 220 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2003-05-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 25 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
220 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-40 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
951 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
25 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
73 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

292 
ACUS11 KWNS 110757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110756 
MIZ000-110930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0937
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND ERN MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 110756Z - 110930Z

AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM
AROUND MBL TO JUST N OF MTC. REGIONAL VWP DATA INDICATE THE PRESENCE
OF SWLY 50-60KT LLJ ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS LIKELY ENHANCING LIFT
OVER THIS FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NRN MI. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY N OF THIS FRONT
WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
THE N AND E OF WW0352.


..MEAD.. 05/11/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

44198580 44698589 45108570 45498472 45388359 44698248
43758229 42718249 42308285 42198341 42458388 42768388
43498392 43918383 43928539 43938553

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 10, 11:40 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegan, Barry, Bay, Branch, Calhoun, Cass and 25 more2 hr
May 11, 12:00 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCAllegan, Barry, Bay, Berrien, Branch, Calhoun and 22 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.