Alert archive / Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 84
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 15, 2003, 11:12 PM CST for 8 states. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 15, 2003, 11:12 PM CST (05:12 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 16, 2003, 4:15 AM CST
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 278 counties
Adair County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Bath County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyd County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Carter County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grant County, KY, Green County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Larue County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, Martin County, KY, Mason County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Washington County, KY, Woodford County, KY, Allegany County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Charles County, MD, Garrett County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Alamance County, NC, Alexander County, NC, Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Avery County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Durham County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Vance County, NC, Warren County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Adams County, OH, Athens County, OH, Belmont County, OH, Brown County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Gallia County, OH, Guernsey County, OH, Highland County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Monroe County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Muskingum County, OH, Noble County, OH, Perry County, OH, Pike County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Washington County, OH, Fayette County, PA, Greene County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Washington County, PA, Carter County, TN, Johnson County, TN, Sullivan County, TN, Unicoi County, TN, Washington County, TN, Albemarle County, VA, Alleghany County, VA, Amelia County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Arlington County, VA, Augusta County, VA, Bath County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Bland County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Brunswick County, VA, Buchanan County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Carroll County, VA, Charles City County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Bristol, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, City of Winchester, VA, Clarke County, VA, Craig County, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Essex County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Frederick County, VA, Giles County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Greene County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, Henry County, VA, Highland County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King George County, VA, King William County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Lunenburg County, VA, Madison County, VA, Mecklenburg County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Nelson County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Orange County, VA, Page County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Russell County, VA, Shenandoah County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Sussex County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Warren County, VA, Washington County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Barbour County, WV, Berkeley County, WV, Boone County, WV, Braxton County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Clay County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Fayette County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Grant County, WV, Greenbrier County, WV, Hampshire County, WV, Hardy County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Jefferson County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, Marion County, WV, Marshall County, WV, Mason County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Mineral County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Monongalia County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Morgan County, WV, Nicholas County, WV, Ohio County, WV, Pendleton County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Pocahontas County, WV, Preston County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Raleigh County, WV, Randolph County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Roane County, WV, Summers County, WV, Taylor County, WV, Tucker County, WV, Tyler County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Webster County, WV, Wetzel County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV, Wyoming County, WV
The radar
The Charleston,WV radar (KRLX), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 00:00Z, 5.2 hours before the alert went out and 204 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 7 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 450 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 84 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 205 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 263 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
825 ACUS11 KWNS 160513 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160512 KYZ000-OHZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-161015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0084 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY / SRN OH / WV / VA / NC CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 160512Z - 161015Z EXPECT BOTH INCREASING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION RATES THRU 16/10Z. A SIGNIFICANT ICING EVENT IS IMMINENT ACROSS MANY OF THESE AREAS. AMIDST CONFLUENT MID-UPPER LVL FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOWLY MOVING MID-LVL TROUGH...850MB LO CNTR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN IN THE TN VALLEY REGION. RECENT IR/RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRM THIS TREND AS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ADVECTS NNEWD FROM THE GULF COASTAL REGION. BOTH ETA/GFS AGREE IN STRENGTHENING THE 850 LOW CNTR EAST OF PAH AS WAA 40-45 KT WAA REGIME INCREASES THRU THE EARLY MRNG HOURS. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE LOW-LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION YIELDING A WINTRY MESS. BOTH ETA/GFS CONCUR WITH A LARGE SHIELD OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET FROM SRN OH...EWD THRU MUCH OF CNTRL WV...INTO SWRN/WRN VA...EWD THRU MUCH OF SRN/SCNTRL VA AS WELL AS ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER AREA. MOST RECENT ETA ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS HEAVIEST WATER EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL SURGE FROM ECNTRL TN...NNEWD INTO SERN/SRN KY...INTO SCNTRL WV BY 16/09-12Z. THE AREA OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL STRETCH FROM SRN/SERN OH...EWD THRU NCNTRL/NRN WV...INTO NRN VA. PLEASE REFER TO WEB GRAPHIC FOR PRECIITATION TYPE LAYOUT. ..NADEN.. 02/16/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... 40238094 40177948 39917854 39197746 38837698 38617643 37977628 37177691 36447773 35717963 35618000 35548083 35558176 35918249 36328255 36868228 37538227 37728253 37838308 37778354 37378399 37098431 37018484 36998527 37108565 37488584 38368554 38668497 39028407 39618314 39928242 40038177
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 5:41 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boone, Bourbon, Boyd, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll and 15 more | 3 hr |
| Feb 16, 10:45 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Calvert, Caroline, Carroll and 18 more | 6 hr |
| Feb 16, 9:09 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Alexander, Alleghany, Anson, Ashe, Avery and 40 more | 7 hr |
| Feb 16, 1:43 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Caswell, Chatham, Durham, Forsyth, Franklin and 10 more | 4 hr |
| Feb 16, 1:38 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Athens, Belmont, Butler, Champaign, Clark, Clinton and 24 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.