Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 87
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 16, 2003, 10:09 AM EST for 4 states. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 16, 2003, 10:09 AM EST (15:09 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 16, 2003, 4:45 PM EST
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 59 counties
Alamance County, NC, Alexander County, NC, Alleghany County, NC, Anson County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Durham County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Polk County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Union County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Cherokee County, SC, Greenville County, SC, Spartanburg County, SC, York County, SC, Unicoi County, TN, Carroll County, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, Grayson County, VA, Henry County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA
The radar
The Greer radar (KGSP), 156 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 3.2 hours before the alert went out and 93 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 3 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 457 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 84 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 474 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 871 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 ACUS11 KWNS 161510 SWOMCD SPC MCD 161509 SCZ000-NCZ000-162145- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0087 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0909 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN SC...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WRN NC CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET VALID 161509Z - 162145Z FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD NWRN SC AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WRN NC BETWEEN 15-18Z. HOURLY RATES WILL AVERAGE 0.05 TO 0.10 IN/HR. SLEET WILL BE LIKELY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SUB-FREEZING SURFACE AIR HAS MOVED SWD INTO EXTREME NWRN SC AS AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS NEWD OUT OF GA. NELY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER / CAA / WILL KEEP THE FREEZING LINE FROM MOVING BACK NORTH EVEN AS WAA INTENSIFIES ABOVE IT. ALL THIS WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC SETUP FOR FREEZING RAIN. SLEET WILL ALSO BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN SURFACE COLD AXIS WHERE COLD AIR IS DEEPEST AND FURTHER N INTO SRN VA. ..JEWELL.. 02/16/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... 35537909 34858023 34768098 34868173 34878241 35148307 35878284 36888102 36947914 36217851
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 12:12 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Alexander, Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Burke and 24 more | 5 hr |
| Feb 16, 2:43 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Caswell, Chatham, Durham, Forsyth, Franklin and 10 more | 4 hr |
| Feb 16, 11:45 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arlington, Clarke, Culpeper, Fairfax, Fauquier, Frederick and 20 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.