Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 87

February 16, 20034 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 16, 2003, 10:09 AM EST for 4 states. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 16, 2003, 10:09 AM EST (15:09 UTC)
Expired
Feb 16, 2003, 4:45 PM EST
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 59 counties

Alamance County, NC, Alexander County, NC, Alleghany County, NC, Anson County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Durham County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Polk County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Union County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Cherokee County, SC, Greenville County, SC, Spartanburg County, SC, York County, SC, Unicoi County, TN, Carroll County, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, Grayson County, VA, Henry County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 156 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 3.2 hours before the alert went out and 93 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2003-02-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 3 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2003-02-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 474 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
457 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
84 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
474 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
871 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 161510
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161509 
SCZ000-NCZ000-162145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0087
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0909 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN SC...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WRN NC

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET 

VALID 161509Z - 162145Z

FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD NWRN SC AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WRN
NC BETWEEN 15-18Z.  HOURLY RATES WILL AVERAGE 0.05 TO 0.10 IN/HR.
 SLEET WILL BE LIKELY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN SECTIONS OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA.



SUB-FREEZING SURFACE AIR HAS MOVED SWD INTO EXTREME NWRN SC AS
AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LOW
LEVEL WAA DEVELOPS NEWD OUT OF GA.  NELY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER / CAA / WILL KEEP THE FREEZING LINE FROM MOVING BACK NORTH
EVEN AS WAA INTENSIFIES ABOVE IT.  ALL THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC SETUP FOR FREEZING RAIN.  SLEET WILL ALSO
BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITHIN SURFACE COLD AXIS WHERE COLD AIR IS
DEEPEST AND FURTHER N INTO SRN VA.

..JEWELL.. 02/16/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

35537909 34858023 34768098 34868173 34878241 35148307
35878284 36888102 36947914 36217851

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 16, 12:12 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Alexander, Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Burke and 24 more5 hr
Feb 16, 2:43 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Caswell, Chatham, Durham, Forsyth, Franklin and 10 more4 hr
Feb 16, 11:45 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArlington, Clarke, Culpeper, Fairfax, Fauquier, Frederick and 20 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.