Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 91

February 16, 20035 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 16, 2003, 6:41 PM EST for 5 states. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 16, 2003, 6:41 PM EST (23:41 UTC)
Expired: Feb 16, 2003, 9:45 PM EST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 107 counties

Ohio County, IN, Switzerland County, IN, Boone County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyd County, KY, Bracken County, KY, Campbell County, KY, Carroll County, KY, Carter County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Gallatin County, KY, Grant County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Henry County, KY, Kenton County, KY, Lewis County, KY, Mason County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Owen County, KY, Pendleton County, KY, Robertson County, KY, Scott County, KY, Adams County, OH, Athens County, OH, Belmont County, OH, Brown County, OH, Butler County, OH, Carroll County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clermont County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Columbiana County, OH, Coshocton County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Gallia County, OH, Greene County, OH, Guernsey County, OH, Hamilton County, OH, Harrison County, OH, Highland County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Holmes County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Jefferson County, OH, Knox County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Licking County, OH, Logan County, OH, Madison County, OH, Marion County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Miami County, OH, Monroe County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Morrow County, OH, Muskingum County, OH, Noble County, OH, Perry County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Pike County, OH, Preble County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Stark County, OH, Tuscarawas County, OH, Union County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Warren County, OH, Washington County, OH, Wayne County, OH, Allegheny County, PA, Beaver County, PA, Greene County, PA, Washington County, PA, Braxton County, WV, Brooke County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Clay County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Hancock County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Marion County, WV, Marshall County, WV, Mason County, WV, Monongalia County, WV, Ohio County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Roane County, WV, Taylor County, WV, Tyler County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Wetzel County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV

The radar

The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 7 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 429 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 82 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 327 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 368 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

189 
ACUS11 KWNS 162342
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162341 
KYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-PAZ000-170245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0091
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KY/NRN WV/SRN OH/WRN PA

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 162341Z - 170245Z

SNOWFALL RATES TO 1 INCH PER HOUR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH-CNTRL OH THROUGH 03Z. MEANWHILE...MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LUK-PKB-MGW LINE.



PRIMARY MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WAS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS THIS EVENING NEAR THE
CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS. STRONG LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC
LIFT...AND MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING EAST OF PRIMARY
MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DEEP LAYER ASCENT
WITHIN COLD SATURATED AIRMASS ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY THROUGH
AT LEAST 03Z. DEEP SLY FLOW CHANNELED BY WRN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS HAS PRODUCED SUFFICIENT WARMING IN THE 850-750MB
LAYER FOR PCPN TO FALL IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AS FAR NORTH
AS PKB. HOWEVER...DEEP ELY CURRENT OF VERY COLD AIR CONTINUES TO
THE NORTH OF THIS AREA...FROM PA WWD ACROSS OH...AND THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR HEAVY SNOW
TO CONTINUE.

..CARBIN.. 02/16/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

40308448 40878215 40858034 40377965 39377984 38338068
38438156 38328249 38288309 38158438 38368530 38868521
39358479

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 16, 2:38 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Decatur, Fayette, Franklin, Henry, Rush, Shelby and 2 more	3 hr
Feb 16, 12:12 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adair, Anderson, Bath, Bourbon, Boyd, Boyle and 46 more	5 hr
Feb 16, 11:45 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Delaware	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.