Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 89

February 16, 20038 counties in Indiana; 30 counties in Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 16, 2003, 2:38 PM EST for 8 counties in Indiana; 30 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 16, 2003, 2:38 PM EST (19:38 UTC)
Expired
Feb 16, 2003, 5:45 PM EST
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 38 counties

Decatur County, IN, Fayette County, IN, Franklin County, IN, Henry County, IN, Rush County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Union County, IN, Wayne County, IN, Athens County, OH, Belmont County, OH, Butler County, OH, Champaign County, OH, Clark County, OH, Clinton County, OH, Coshocton County, OH, Darke County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Fayette County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Greene County, OH, Guernsey County, OH, Harrison County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Licking County, OH, Madison County, OH, Miami County, OH, Monroe County, OH, Montgomery County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Muskingum County, OH, Noble County, OH, Perry County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Preble County, OH, Ross County, OH, Warren County, OH, Washington County, OH

The radar

The Cincinnati radar (KILN), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 32 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2003-02-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 7 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 12:00Z on 2003-02-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 327 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
7 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
429 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
82 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
327 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
368 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

583 
ACUS11 KWNS 161939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161938 
INZ000-OHZ000-162245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0089
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IND AND OH

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 161938Z - 162245Z

SNOW RATES AVERAGING 1 INCH PER HOUR APPEAR LIKELY IN EVOLVING
BAND OF SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.



ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD OUT OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG FRONTAL ZONE.	AS THIS
OCCURS...LOW/MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BECOME ENHANCED IN ZONE
ROUGHLY ALONG/JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...FROM PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN OHIO...BY 17/00Z. 
STRENGTHENING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD IN FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL
DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW/INTENSIFYING SNOW RATES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED BAND NEAR/SOUTHEAST OF INDIANAPOLIS AREA
THROUGH DAYTON/COLUMBUS TO NEAR PITTSBURGH PA.

..KERR.. 02/16/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

39728593 39938557 40208469 40268342 40438171 40278063
39558090 39298192 39258325 39258430 39158528 39318572

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 16, 6:41 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCOhio, Switzerland3 hr
Feb 16, 12:12 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Athens, Belmont, Brown, Fairfield, Gallia and 16 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.