Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 63

February 14, 200314 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 14, 2003, 5:06 PM CST for 14 counties in Texas. It was in force for 114 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 14, 2003, 5:06 PM CST (23:06 UTC)
Expired
Feb 14, 2003, 7:00 PM CST
In force
114 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Atascosa County, TX, Bandera County, TX, Dimmit County, TX, Duval County, TX, Frio County, TX, Jim Wells County, TX, Kinney County, TX, La Salle County, TX, McMullen County, TX, Medina County, TX, Real County, TX, Uvalde County, TX, Webb County, TX, Zavala County, TX

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 12:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 159 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Del Rio, TX at 12:00Z on 2003-02-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 705 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Del Rio, TX at 12:00Z on 2003-02-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -137 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
705 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-82 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
877 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
59 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-137 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-95 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
-0.4
Supercell composite
-2.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

148 
ACUS11 KWNS 142307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142306 
TXZ000-150100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0063
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0506 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 1...

VALID 142306Z - 150100Z

NEW WW WILL LIKELY REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...WHICH WILL
REPLACE WW 001.  THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.



REGIONAL RADAR INDICATES CONVECTION INCREASING IN STRENGTH FROM
BANDERA COUNTY SWWD INTO LA SALLE COUNTY.  THESE STORMS ARE
MOVING THROUGH A LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS WITH 100MB MLCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG.  LATEST GRK/EWX VWP DATA INDICATES 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES OF 40-50 KTS. THIS SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS.



THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS SHORTWAVE
--CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY-- CONTINUES TO LIFT
NEWD OUT OF CHIHUAHUA MEXICO.  THUS...A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED...REPLACING WW 001 AND EXTENDING EWD TOWARD THE COAST.

..MEAD.. 02/14/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

29919983 29919891 28609840 27309790 27309879 27309969
28600022 29910075

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 13, 10:54 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCoke, Crockett, Glasscock, Howard, Irion, Martin and 5 more2 hr
Feb 14, 1:50 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Dimmit, Frio, Kendall and 9 more3 hr
Feb 14, 2:40 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtascosa, Bandera, Dimmit, Duval, Frio, Jim Wells and 8 more5 hr
Feb 14, 3:55 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Bandera, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Burnet and 20 more2 hr
Feb 14, 4:40 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnderson, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Bowie and 43 more6 hr
Feb 14, 5:30 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtascosa, Bandera, Bee, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal and 22 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.