Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003
Mesoscale Discussion 59
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 14, 2003, 1:50 PM CST for 15 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 14, 2003, 1:50 PM CST (19:50 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 14, 2003, 4:45 PM CST
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Atascosa County, TX, Bandera County, TX, Bexar County, TX, Dimmit County, TX, Frio County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Kerr County, TX, Kinney County, TX, La Salle County, TX, Maverick County, TX, Medina County, TX, Real County, TX, Uvalde County, TX, Webb County, TX, Zavala County, TX
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 114 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 705 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -82 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 877 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 59 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -137 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -95 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- -0.4
- Supercell composite
- -2.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
182 ACUS11 KWNS 141951 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141950 TXZ000-142245- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0059 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0150 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL TX IN VICINITY OF RIO GRANDE CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 141950Z - 142245Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND AFFECT AREAS BETWEEN DEL RIO AND LAREDO. VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE SCALE VERTICAL MOTION APPROACHING THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER TROUGH. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EXIST ALOFT...FROM -14 TO -16 AT 500 MB. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST MODELS ALSO INDICATE CONTINUED COOLING AND STEEPENING OF THE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 500 AND 300 MB. ALL THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S F WILL MAKE FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 100 MB MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL WITH THE APPROACHING JET...INCREASING FROM 50 TO 70 KTS BY 00Z. THEREFORE...SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND OR MOVE OUT OF MEXICO...INTO THE AREA BETWEEN DRT AND LRD. ..JEWELL.. 02/14/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... 29250074 30149970 30139825 28849832 27529952 27919990 28380031 28900060
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 10:54 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Coke, Crockett, Glasscock, Howard, Irion, Martin and 5 more | 2 hr |
| Feb 14, 2:40 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atascosa, Bandera, Dimmit, Duval, Frio, Jim Wells and 8 more | 5 hr |
| Feb 14, 3:55 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Archer, Bandera, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Burnet and 20 more | 2 hr |
| Feb 14, 4:40 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Anderson, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Bowie and 43 more | 6 hr |
| Feb 14, 5:06 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atascosa, Bandera, Dimmit, Duval, Frio, Jim Wells and 8 more | 114 min |
| Feb 14, 5:30 PM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atascosa, Bandera, Bee, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal and 22 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.