Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 57

February 13, 200311 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 13, 2003, 10:54 PM CST for 11 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 13, 2003, 10:54 PM CST (04:54 UTC)
Expired: Feb 14, 2003, 1:00 AM CST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Coke County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Glasscock County, TX, Howard County, TX, Irion County, TX, Martin County, TX, Midland County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Sterling County, TX, Tom Green County, TX

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 4.9 hours before the alert went out and 101 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 167 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -141 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1407 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 71 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 5 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 77 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

549 
ACUS11 KWNS 140454
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140454 
TXZ000-140700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0057
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 PM CST THU FEB 13 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...W CENTRAL AND SWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 140454Z - 140700Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE EWD
WITH TIME ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN TX / THE TRANSPECOS REGION. 
ALTHOUGH SOME THREAT FOR HAIL EXISTS...WW NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.



THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS CROCKETT
AND NERN TERRELL COUNTIES OF SWRN TX...WITHIN AXIS OF GREATEST
INSTABILITY /AROUND 500 J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE/.  ALTHOUGH A
CLEAR FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN...BROAD LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS EVIDENT IN
THIS AREA.  



AS THIS CONFLUENCE AXIS AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT EWD
WITH TIME...STORMS WILL ENCOUNTER WEAKER INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL
TX.  HOWEVER...FAIRLY STEEP /7 TO 7.5 C/KM/ LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS SWRN TX SUGGEST
A LIMITED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..GOSS.. 02/14/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

31580018 30810073 30570160 30700178 31140162 31520176
31970224 32340209 32730107 32240039

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 14, 1:50 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Dimmit, Frio, Kendall and 9 more	3 hr
Feb 14, 2:40 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Atascosa, Bandera, Dimmit, Duval, Frio, Jim Wells and 8 more	5 hr
Feb 14, 3:55 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Archer, Bandera, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Burnet and 20 more	2 hr
Feb 14, 4:40 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Anderson, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Bowie and 43 more	6 hr
Feb 14, 5:06 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atascosa, Bandera, Dimmit, Duval, Frio, Jim Wells and 8 more	114 min
Feb 14, 5:30 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Atascosa, Bandera, Bee, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal and 22 more	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.