Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 285

March 19, 20035 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 19, 2003, 9:28 AM CST for 5 states. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 19, 2003, 9:28 AM CST (15:28 UTC)
Expired
Mar 19, 2003, 11:30 AM CST
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 82 counties

Blount County, AL, DeKalb County, AL, Jackson County, AL, Madison County, AL, Marshall County, AL, Catoosa County, GA, Dade County, GA, Walker County, GA, Adair County, KY, Bell County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clay County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Estill County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Green County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Knox County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Monroe County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Russell County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Washington County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Anderson County, TN, Bledsoe County, TN, Blount County, TN, Bradley County, TN, Campbell County, TN, Cannon County, TN, Claiborne County, TN, Clay County, TN, Coffee County, TN, Cumberland County, TN, DeKalb County, TN, Fentress County, TN, Franklin County, TN, Grainger County, TN, Grundy County, TN, Hamblen County, TN, Hamilton County, TN, Hancock County, TN, Jackson County, TN, Jefferson County, TN, Knox County, TN, Loudon County, TN, Macon County, TN, Marion County, TN, McMinn County, TN, Meigs County, TN, Monroe County, TN, Moore County, TN, Morgan County, TN, Overton County, TN, Pickett County, TN, Putnam County, TN, Rhea County, TN, Roane County, TN, Scott County, TN, Sequatchie County, TN, Smith County, TN, Union County, TN, Van Buren County, TN, Warren County, TN, White County, TN, Lee County, VA

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 3.5 hours before the alert went out and 122 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2003-03-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2003-03-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 70 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
649 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
70 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
231 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

744 
ACUS11 KWNS 191529
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191528 
KYZ000-TNZ000-VAZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-191730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0285
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0928 AM CST WED MAR 19 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...NRN AL...CNTRL/ERN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 56...

VALID 191528Z - 191730Z

CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF
NEW WW BY EARLY AFTERNOON.



LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...SUPPORTED BY STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  MID-LEVEL
TROUGH IS ROTATING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AROUND EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY REDEVELOPING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS.	OCCLUDED SURFACE FRONT IS
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH LIFTED PARCELS
LIKELY STILL IN NARROW BAND OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION ABOVE
BOUNDARY LAYER.  HOWEVER... SUFFICIENT HEATING OF BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
SUPPORT CONTINUING THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ENVIRONMENT
WITH VERY LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH STRONG AND
STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER JET.



UPPER JET AXIS IS PROVIDING SOUTHERN LIMIT TO DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...CURRENTLY NEAR THE BIRMINGHAM AL AREA...THIS
APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN THE CASE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
 AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PIVOT NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY...STRONGER FORCING WILL SUPPORT NORTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF
ACTIVITY INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...WHERE
DESTABILIZATION MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL BY 18-20Z TIME FRAME.

..KERR.. 03/19/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...

36798597 37408579 37938542 37818401 37168309 36138310
35218450 34598553 34048615 33938681 35188653

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 18, 6:39 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Choctaw, Clarke, Coffee, Conecuh, Covington and 13 more3 hr
Mar 18, 7:30 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBaldwin, Butler, Choctaw, Clarke, Conecuh, Covington and 5 more6 hr
Mar 18, 9:10 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAutauga, Baldwin, Bibb, Choctaw, Clarke, Conecuh and 14 more3 hr
Mar 18, 10:25 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBaldwin, Bibb, Choctaw, Clarke, Colbert, Cullman and 24 more7 hr
Mar 18, 11:50 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBibb, Choctaw, Clarke, Colbert, Cullman, Fayette and 18 more115 min
Mar 19, 2:02 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBibb, Choctaw, Clarke, Colbert, Cullman, Dallas and 22 more118 min
Mar 19, 7:10 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMadison2 hr
Mar 19, 8:00 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCDeKalb, Jackson, Madison, Marshall, Morgan4 hr
Mar 19, 11:30 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCDeKalb, Jackson, Marshall7 hr
Mar 19, 11:58 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDeKalb, Etowah, Jackson, Marshall2 hr
Mar 19, 12:59 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarbour, Bullock, Dale, Henry, Houston, Lee and 4 more3 hr
Mar 19, 1:30 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAutauga, Barbour, Bullock, Butler, Calhoun, Chambers and 15 more6 hr
Mar 19, 2:06 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Cherokee, DeKalb, Etowah, Jackson, Marshall and 1 more114 min
Mar 19, 3:35 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarbour, Chambers, Lee, Macon, Randolph, Russell and 1 more115 min
Mar 19, 3:52 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Cherokee, Cleburne, DeKalb, Etowah113 min
Mar 18, 11:53 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtkinson, Baker, Ben Hill, Berrien, Brooks, Calhoun and 27 more3 hr
Mar 19, 9:48 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Banks, Barrow, Burke, Butts, Clarke and 40 more117 min
Mar 19, 4:30 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBanks, Barrow, Bartow, Cherokee, Clarke, Dawson and 20 more6 hr
Mar 19, 4:50 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBaldwin, Ben Hill, Bibb, Bleckley, Butts, Calhoun and 71 more5 hr
Mar 19, 5:32 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCamden, Charlton118 min
Mar 19, 1:29 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBallard3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.