Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
130 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AND SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY...TONIGHT...AND
TUESDAY.

ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CWA PRIMED...READY...AND WAITING FOR CONVECTION
TO BEGIN. STATIONARY FRONT TO REMAIN DRAPED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE CWA KEEPING US IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THEREFORE...MOST UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE SE HALF
OF OUR CWA SO EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER THERE. ON
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE CWA...THERE WILL ALSO BE
AN ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CONSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...AND THE PASSAGE OF
PERIODIC UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL
PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. PASSAGE OF
THE DISTURBANCES AND BOUNDARIES WILL DETERMINE THE TIMING OF RW/TRW
DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF PRECIP RW/TRW IN ALL PERIODS.

.PAH...TORNADO WATCH #253 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FOR ALL OF
SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

JAP

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-061000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1150 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR ALL OF THE QUAD STATE TODAY
   AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LATER THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND ANY OTHER BOUNDARIES THAT
MAY REMAIN FROM THIS MORNINGS STORMS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN
OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION... WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT.  GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINS THAT
FELL YESTERDAY...FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A MAJOR CONCERN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY AS WELL AS FAR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS.  A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO BE DRAPED ACROSS
THESE AREAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND WITH A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE.  AT THIS TIME IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT...BUT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO LEAD TO MORE
FLASH FLOODING.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.  THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL EVENTS
IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DRS/JAP

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-051505-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
951 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

...TORNADO WATCH #246 WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM CDT...

AT 955 AM CDT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED OUT OF THE PADUCAH
COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR NOW...THEREFORE THE TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

JAP

INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-051830-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1230 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

...TORNADO WATCH #253 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST
   INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...

THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DIP SOUTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND ANY OTHER BOUNDARIES THAT
MAY REMAIN FROM THIS MORNINGS STORMS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN
OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

JAP

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