Tornado Warning 19, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
244 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TIMING OF PRECIP AND SVR WX.

FIRST CLUSTER OF STORMS NORTH OF WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AT 850 SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AT 1900 UTC WARM
FRONT ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF CWA WITH MID TO UPPER 60 DEW
POINTS. LARGE HAIL WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE REPORTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

SEVERE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM NOW OVER
NEBRASKA...KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.  EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO MERGE INTO A
POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE AS IT REACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE IN ZONES BOTH TONIGHT AND
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EHI AND VGP VALUES FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER BOTH TIME FRAMES. FIRST SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WEAKENS TO OUR EAST DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. IF THE CLOUDS BREAK AS EXPECTED...WE WILL DESTABILIZE BY
AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST CAPES OVER 3500 J/KG. AGAIN WITH VGP VALUES
OVER .3 IN PART OF WEST KENTUCKY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EHI VALUES
AROUND 5...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY.

AS FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH...IT IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG OHIO RIVER
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG FRONT...WILL
MENTION HEAVY RAIN.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
WINDS...TEMPERATURES.

EXTENDED FORECAST...ALL MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH MEANS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK
TROUGH OVER WEST COAST WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.
TIMING OF IMPULSES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY DIFFICULT. THIS WILL KEEP A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER UNTIL FRIDAY. MODELS SWING DECENT
SYSTEM THROUGH ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

.PAH...NONE.

SPODEN

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-051000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
857 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

...HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TONIGHT
WITH A MODERATE RISK OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
TONIGHT WITH A MODERATE RISK OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS OVER
THE REST OF THE REGION. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
REGION...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JUST NORTH OF CARBONDALE
ILLINOIS...TO NEAR MADISONVILLE KENTUCKY. STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE LINE.

ONE ROUND IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KENTUCKY TOMORROW...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE REST OF THE QUAD
STATE AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME...IS APPEARS THAT
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING IN
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCH AREAS. ADDITIONAL
ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE QUAD STATE
AREA. IN ADDITION...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
827 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0810 PM    MT. VERNON                IL   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   JEFFERSON                      REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
839 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0837 PM    2W ADVANCE                MO   80 MPH WIND GUST
05/04/03   STODDARD                       REPORTED BY STODDARD
                                          COUNTY DES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
842 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0820 PM    WAPPAPELLO                MO   60 MPH WIND GUST
05/04/03   WAYNE                          TREES DOWN REPORTED BY
                                          THE PUBLIC

0822 PM    WAPPAPELLO                MO   60 MPH WIND GUST
05/04/03   WAYNE                          REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
857 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0856 PM    MORLEY                    MO   80 MPH WIND GUST
05/04/03   SCOTT                          REPORTED BY SCOTT COUNTY
                                          EM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
903 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0859 PM    BETWEEN SIKESTON AND HAYWOOD CITYMO   FUNNEL CLOUD
05/04/03   SCOTT                          REPORTED BY SCOTT COUNTY
                                          EM

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-050400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
907 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE
QUAD STATE REGION...

AT 900 PM...THE TRAILING EDGE OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED
FROM MT. VERNON ILLINOIS TO POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI. THE STORMS WERE
MOVING EAST AT 55 TO 60 MPH...AND SHOULD REACH A LINE FROM ROCKPORT
INDIANA TO CROFTON KENTUCKY BY 11 PM.

THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR STREET FLOODING
AND ALLOW SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS TO OVERFLOW.

PERSONS SHOULD BE WATCHFUL FOR RISING WATER AND SEEK HIGH GROUND IF
NECESSARY. AVOID ROADS THAT MAY BECOME FLOODED.

AT 855 PM...SEVERAL ROADS ALONG ROUTE 3 IN JACKSON COUNTY
ILLINOIS WERE COVERED WITH WATER...NEAR THE RANDOLPH COUNTY
ILLINOIS LINE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

DLL