Alert archive / Kentucky / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003

Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Paducah, KY

May 4, 20038 counties in Kentucky

NWS Paducah, KY issued this flash flood warning at May 4, 2003, 10:50 PM CDT for 8 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 6 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 4, 2003, 10:50 PM CDT (03:50 UTC)
Expired: May 5, 2003, 4:45 AM CDT
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Calloway County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, Trigg County, KY

The radar

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 41 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 3.8 hours before the alert went out and 180 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 117 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -162 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1192 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 293 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 530 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS53 KPAH 050351
FFWPAH
KYC035-039-075-083-105-143-157-221-050945-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1050 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  LYON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY
  MARSHALL COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY
  TRIGG COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY
  CARLISLE COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY
  GRAVES COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY
  HICKMAN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY
  CALLOWAY COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY
  FULTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY

* UNTIL 445 AM CDT

* AT 1045 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE PURCHASE AREA THE PAST ONE AND A HALF HOURS. 
WATER HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS A FEW ROADWAYS.

* THUNDERSTORMS OVER TENNESSEE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST 
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ANOTHER INCH OR 
TWO OF RAIN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. 

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODS.

ABSOLUTELY DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER
COVERS THE ROADWAY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE
ABANDONED. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3652 8914 3684 8908 3694 8874 3694 8850
          3702 8849 3705 8831 3699 8825 3710 8821
          3715 8806 3695 8789 3665 8775 3668 8806
          3651 8804

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at May 4, 2:44 PM CDT, 8 hours 6 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 4, 2:44 PM CDT, 8 hours 6 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
244 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TIMING OF PRECIP AND SVR WX.

FIRST CLUSTER OF STORMS NORTH OF WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AT 850 SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AT 1900 UTC WARM
FRONT ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF CWA WITH MID TO UPPER 60 DEW
POINTS. LARGE HAIL WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE REPORTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

SEVERE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM NOW OVER
NEBRASKA...KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.  EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO MERGE INTO A
POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE AS IT REACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE IN ZONES BOTH TONIGHT AND
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EHI AND VGP VALUES FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER BOTH TIME FRAMES. FIRST SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WEAKENS TO OUR EAST DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. IF THE CLOUDS BREAK AS EXPECTED...WE WILL DESTABILIZE BY
AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST CAPES OVER 3500 J/KG. AGAIN WITH VGP VALUES
OVER .3 IN PART OF WEST KENTUCKY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EHI VALUES
AROUND 5...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY.

AS FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH...IT IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG OHIO RIVER
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG FRONT...WILL
MENTION HEAVY RAIN.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
WINDS...TEMPERATURES.

EXTENDED FORECAST...ALL MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH MEANS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK
TROUGH OVER WEST COAST WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.
TIMING OF IMPULSES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY DIFFICULT. THIS WILL KEEP A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER UNTIL FRIDAY. MODELS SWING DECENT
SYSTEM THROUGH ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

.PAH...NONE.

SPODEN

Hazardous weather outlook, May 4, 8:57 PM CDT, 1 hour 53 minutes before

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-051000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
857 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

...HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TONIGHT
WITH A MODERATE RISK OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
TONIGHT WITH A MODERATE RISK OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS OVER
THE REST OF THE REGION. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
REGION...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JUST NORTH OF CARBONDALE
ILLINOIS...TO NEAR MADISONVILLE KENTUCKY. STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE LINE.

ONE ROUND IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
KENTUCKY TOMORROW...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE REST OF THE QUAD
STATE AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME...IS APPEARS THAT
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING IN
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCH AREAS. ADDITIONAL
ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE QUAD STATE
AREA. IN ADDITION...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

PS

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 4, 9:54 PM CDT, 56 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
954 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0945 PM    KEVIL                     KY   60 MPH WIND GUST
05/04/03   BALLARD                        REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTERS

Local storm report, May 4, 9:57 PM CDT, 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
957 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0951 PM    WEST PADUCAH              KY   60 MPH WIND GUST
05/04/03   MCCRACKEN                      REPORTED BY WFO PADUCAH
                                          PERSONNEL

Local storm report, May 4, 10:01 PM CDT, 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1001 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0958 PM    METROPOLIS                IL   FUNNEL CLOUD
05/04/03   MASSAC                         REPORTED BY MASSAC COUNTY
                                          SHERIFFS OFFICE THAT THE
                                          FUNNEL CLOUD WAS EAST OF
                                          METROPOLIS NEAR 1-24

Local storm report, May 4, 10:15 PM CDT, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1015 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1010 PM    JOY                       KY   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   LIVINGSTON                     REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER ALSO 60 MPH WIND
                                          REPORTED AT THIS TIME

Local storm report, May 4, 10:28 PM CDT, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1028 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1026 PM    ROPERS LANDING            IL   WIND DAMAGE
05/04/03   POPE                           REPORTED BY POPE COUNTY
                                          DES TREES DOWN ALONG WITH
                                          UNCONFIRMED ROOF DAMAGE

Local storm report, May 4, 10:30 PM CDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1030 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1028 PM    5SW MURRAY                KY   60 MPH WIND GUST
05/04/03   CALLOWAY                       REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTERS.  ALSO 0.75 INCH
                                          DIAMETER HAIL REPORTED AT
                                          THIS TIME

The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 4, 9:25 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Ballard	50 min
May 4, 9:40 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	McCracken	50 min
May 4, 9:47 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Ballard, McCracken	3 hr
May 4, 9:58 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Livingston	47 min
May 4, 10:07 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Calloway	38 min
May 4, 10:13 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Graves	32 min
May 4, 10:23 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Crittenden	37 min
May 4, 10:24 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Union	36 min
May 4, 10:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Union, Webster	43 min
May 4, 10:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Union, Webster	40 min
May 4, 10:55 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Webster	35 min
May 4, 10:57 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Trigg	48 min
May 4, 11:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Christian	53 min
May 4, 11:18 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Calloway	57 min
May 4, 11:33 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Daviess, McLean	42 min
May 4, 11:36 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	PAH	Christian, Todd	54 min
May 4, 11:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Trigg	53 min
May 5, 1:25 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	PAH	Christian, Todd	3 hr
May 5, 2:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Christian	44 min
May 5, 2:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Todd	36 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Kentucky, 2003 Every flash flood warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.