Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
244 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TIMING OF PRECIP AND SVR WX.

FIRST CLUSTER OF STORMS NORTH OF WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AT 850 SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AT 1900 UTC WARM
FRONT ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF CWA WITH MID TO UPPER 60 DEW
POINTS. LARGE HAIL WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE REPORTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

SEVERE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM NOW OVER
NEBRASKA...KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.  EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO MERGE INTO A
POSSIBLE SQUALL LINE AS IT REACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE IN ZONES BOTH TONIGHT AND
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. EHI AND VGP VALUES FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER BOTH TIME FRAMES. FIRST SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WEAKENS TO OUR EAST DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. IF THE CLOUDS BREAK AS EXPECTED...WE WILL DESTABILIZE BY
AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST CAPES OVER 3500 J/KG. AGAIN WITH VGP VALUES
OVER .3 IN PART OF WEST KENTUCKY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EHI VALUES
AROUND 5...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY.

AS FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH...IT IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG OHIO RIVER
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG FRONT...WILL
MENTION HEAVY RAIN.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
WINDS...TEMPERATURES.

EXTENDED FORECAST...ALL MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY
WHICH MEANS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK
TROUGH OVER WEST COAST WILL KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION.
TIMING OF IMPULSES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY DIFFICULT. THIS WILL KEEP A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER UNTIL FRIDAY. MODELS SWING DECENT
SYSTEM THROUGH ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

.PAH...NONE.

SPODEN

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-051000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
222 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND
AGAIN MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE THE RESULT OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
EVENING...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
APPEARS TO BE FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS WILL BE REQUESTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED FOR THE ISSUANCE OF WATCHES AND
WARNINGS THROUGH MONDAY.

YORK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
759 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0758 PM    15W DONIPHAN              MO   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   RIPLEY                         REPORTED BY RIPLEY COUNTY
                                          DES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
808 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0802 PM    9W DONIPHAN               MO   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   RIPLEY                         REPORTED BY RIPLEY COUNTY
                                          DES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
813 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0802 PM    9W DONIPHAN               MO   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   RIPLEY                         REPORTED BY RIPLEY COUNTY
                                          DES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
817 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0814 PM    2W POPLAR BLUFF           MO   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   BUTLER                         REPORTED BY BUTLER COUNTY
                                          DES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
820 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0818 PM    9N POPLAR BLUFF           MO   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   BUTLER                         REPORTED BY BUTLER COUNTY
                                          EM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
827 PM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0810 PM    MT. VERNON                IL   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   JEFFERSON                      REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTERS