Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Louisville, KY

May 15, 2003Casey County, Lincoln County, Kentucky

NWS Louisville, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 15, 2003, 8:09 AM EDT for Casey County, Lincoln County, Kentucky. It was in force for 36 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 15, 2003, 8:09 AM EDT (12:09 UTC)
Expired: May 15, 2003, 8:45 AM EDT
In force: 36 min
Issued by: NWS Louisville, KY
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Casey County, KY, Lincoln County, KY

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 216 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 663 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -15 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 607 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 30 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 65 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

248 
WUUS53 KLMK 151209
SVRLMK
KYC045-137-151245-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
809 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN CASEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
  SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY

* UNTIL 845 AM EDT

* AT 807 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER MIDDLEBURG...OR ABOUT 22 MILES NORTHWEST
  OF SOMERSET...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  KINGS MOUNTAIN AROUND 815 AM EDT
  WAYNESBURG AROUND 820 AM EDT
 

HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER IS EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3726 8473 3728 8489 3745 8488 3744 8448
          3734 8451

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 15, 4:40 AM EDT, 3 hours 29 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 15, 4:40 AM EDT, 3 hours 29 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
440 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THIS MORNING.
STORMS HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENING IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO UPPER WIND MAX DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI IS RESULTING IN INCREASED UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WILL HAVE TO MENTION STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN
DIMINISHING. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AS FRONT APPROACHES AND AFTERNOON HEATING PROVIDES AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE PROVIDES TRIGGER.

MODELS GENERALLY SIMILAR AND WILL COMPROMISE ON AREAS WHERE
DIFFERENCES OCCUR.

...SHORT TERM...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN FCST TODAY
THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT AS FRONT DROPS SOME SOUTH AND UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE EAST RESULTING IN DRYING. NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA
APPROACHES ON FRIDAY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
BACK OVER FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HAVE STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND
BLENDED IN WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR TEMPS AND POPS.

LONGER TERM...
WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICNAT CHANGES ATTM.

.LMK...NONE.

SCHOLZ

Hazardous weather outlook, May 15, 5:45 AM EDT, 2 hours 24 minutes before

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-161100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
545 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.  MEANWHILE COLD AIR IN THE HIGHER
REACHES OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUGGESTS SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.  THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS PLACED ALL OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA
IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS LATER FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT AGAIN APPEARS THAT
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE NON SEVERE....WHILE
IT IS TO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE STORMS WILL HAVE SEVERE
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

STUREY

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 15, 5:44 AM EDT, 2 hours 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
544 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0535 AM    BIG CLIFTY                KY   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   GRAYSON                        PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
                                          REPORTED FROM HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

RES

Local storm report, May 15, 6:38 AM EDT, 1 hour 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
638 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0637 AM    BUFFALO                   KY   .75 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   LARUE                          DIME SIZE HAIL. REPORTED
                                          BY NWS MANAGER.

RES

Local storm report, May 15, 7:16 AM EDT, 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
716 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0710 AM    SALOMA                    KY   .75 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   TAYLOR

LJD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Louisville, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 15, 3:46 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Hancock	29 min
May 15, 4:50 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Breckinridge	55 min
May 15, 5:45 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Grayson, Hardin	30 min
May 15, 6:32 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Larue	28 min
May 15, 6:44 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Green, Marion, Taylor	31 min
May 15, 7:16 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Taylor	29 min
May 15, 11:41 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Meade	49 min
May 15, 12:00 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Breckinridge, Hancock	45 min
May 15, 12:30 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bullitt, Hardin, Jefferson, Meade	45 min
May 15, 12:48 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Breckinridge	27 min
May 15, 1:16 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bullitt, Nelson	44 min
May 15, 1:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Spencer	47 min
May 15, 1:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Anderson	33 min
May 15, 2:12 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Fayette	48 min
May 15, 2:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Edmonson	31 min
May 15, 2:27 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Barren	48 min
May 15, 2:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Adair	34 min
May 15, 3:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Russell	37 min
May 15, 3:13 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Metcalfe	32 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.