Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
921 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2003

...SHORT TERM UPDATE...

RADAR OVER CEN KY AND SRN IN IS MOSTLY QUIET AT THIS HOUR, AS
DAYTIME HEATING HAS ENDED AND THERE ARE NO LARGE SCALE FORCING
MECHANISMS NOR BOUNDARIES NEARBY. HOWEVER, UPSTREAM OVER CEN IN/IL,
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS ONGOING, PROPAGATING SEWD ALONG WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOIST INFLOW, AND LOW-LEVEL HELICITIES, INTO
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ENHANCED VIA MESO-LOW JUST E OF KCMI, ASSOCIATED
WITH SEWD MOVING 500MB LOW OVER IA. WITH FREEZING LEVELS FROM
UPSTREAM 0Z SOUNDINGS BELOW 8400 FT, HAIL HAS BEEN A PROBLEM, ALONG
WITH HIGH WINDS WHEN THE SYSTEM WAS EXHIBITING BOWING
CHARACTERISTICS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS,
SHOULD THIS SYSTEM MAINTAIN ITSELF, MAY SKIM OUR NRN ZONES LATER ON
TONIGHT.

MORE INTO WRN IL AND MO, PLUME OF HIGH 850-500MB LAPSE RATES IS
ASSOC WITH SCT TSRA. THIS ENVIRONMENT AND UPWARD MOTION FROM 500MB
WAVE, PER LATEST RUC, WILL MOVE INTO LMK FA AFTER 6Z. THEREFORE, WILL
MAINTAIN 40-50% CHC POPS FOR REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH
HIGHEST POPS IN N/W PARTS OF FA. PER SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE, AREA OF
200-400 J/KG CAPES BTWN -20 AND -40C NOW OVER MO, LIKELY TO BE
ADVECTED INTO LMK FA LATER TONIGHT, SO WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS THINK
HAIL CERTAINLY A THREAT FROM STRONGER CELLS. THIS TREND WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.

.LMK...NONE.

XXV

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-151100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
955 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.

A WARM FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE EVENING,
LEAVING BEHIND A MORE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS ALONG WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE, WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS EXIST NORTHWEST OF A BOWLING GREEN TO LEXINGTON
LINE. DUE TO RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT, LARGE HAIL IS
POSSIBLE OUT OF THESE STORMS, ALONG WITH HIGH WIND GUSTS SHOULD
THESE STORMS ORGANIZE INTO LINES. REMEMBER THAT DEADLY LIGHTNING IS
ALWAYS A THREAT ANYTIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEARBY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AGAIN DOT THE AREA THURSDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA, WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS FORECAST A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND, AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS OUR WAY. AS A RESULT, SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THEN. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO SOON TO
CONFIDENTLY PREDICT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS, AND LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS, ARE REQUESTED TO
REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
LOUISVILLE.

SMALLCOMB