Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
440 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THIS MORNING.
STORMS HAVE BEEN STRENGTHENING IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO UPPER WIND MAX DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI IS RESULTING IN INCREASED UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WILL HAVE TO MENTION STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING THEN
DIMINISHING. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AS FRONT APPROACHES AND AFTERNOON HEATING PROVIDES AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE PROVIDES TRIGGER.

MODELS GENERALLY SIMILAR AND WILL COMPROMISE ON AREAS WHERE
DIFFERENCES OCCUR.

...SHORT TERM...

AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN FCST TODAY
THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT AS FRONT DROPS SOME SOUTH AND UPPER SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE EAST RESULTING IN DRYING. NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA
APPROACHES ON FRIDAY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
BACK OVER FA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HAVE STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND
BLENDED IN WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR TEMPS AND POPS.

LONGER TERM...
WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICNAT CHANGES ATTM.

.LMK...NONE.

SCHOLZ

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-161100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
545 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. SEVERAL EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.  MEANWHILE COLD AIR IN THE HIGHER
REACHES OF THE ATMOSPHERE SUGGESTS SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.  THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS PLACED ALL OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA
IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS LATER FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT AGAIN APPEARS THAT
PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE NON SEVERE....WHILE
IT IS TO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE STORMS WILL HAVE SEVERE
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

STUREY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
544 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0535 AM    BIG CLIFTY                KY   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   GRAYSON                        PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
                                          REPORTED FROM HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

RES