Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
242 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2003

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS.  FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
WEST THROUGH THURSDAY.  PLENTY OF SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS WILL
AFFECT OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.  HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF
IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE TROF
AXIS CROSSING OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM IAG THROUGH CHI
TO LNK.  SODDEN AIRMASS (DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 70S...PWAT 1.5+)
SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS GOING TO REMAIN OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FIRST SHORT WAVE IS AFFECTING THE AREA NOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING.SCATTERED TSRA THAT ARE NOW INTENSIFYING (AREA UNDER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH) AHEAD OF FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING.

SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL ROLL IN ALONG THE FRONT AS IT DROPS TO
NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH GFS AND ETA IN GOOD
AGREEMENT.  MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES IN.  SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
OF THE REGION BY 00Z THURSDAY.

THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING...FRONT REMAINING IN
THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL REQUIRE KEEPING CHANCE
POPS.

STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL CRANK UP AHEAD OF SHARPER TROF LATE
THURSDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  WILL
RAISE POPS TO LIKELY AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THAT SYSTEM
OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS.

WILL KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS:  HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR HX 100+ IN CINCI.  SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH FRONT SAGGING SOUTH.

EXTENDED:  AIRMASS WILL FINALLY DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY AFTER
FRONT PASSES.  WEEKEND LOOKS MUCH LESS ACTIVE BUT CANT RULE OUT
TSRA SATURDAY NIGHT.  TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL BE LESS LIKELY WITH MORE
REASONABLE PWAT UNDER 1.5.

.ILN...NONE.

OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 AM WED FOR WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND PARTS OF
THE MIAMI VALLEY.  HEAT ADVISORY FOR HAMILTON COUNTY THROUGH
TONIGHT.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 AM WED FOR PORTIONS OF WHITEWATER VALLEY.
KY...NONE.

CONIGLIO

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-081145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
554 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS.  FLOODING RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70.  THE FLOOD WATCH FOR WEST CENTRAL OHIO WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST AFTERNOONS AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

RYAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
0447 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0435 PM    CEDARVILLE                OH   WIND DAMAGE
07/08/03   GREENE                         TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
0449 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0435 PM    SOUTH CHARLESTON          OH   FLASH FLOOD
07/08/03   CLARK                          HIGH WATER ON AREA ROADS

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
0454 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0453 PM    LANCASTER                 OH   WIND DAMAGE
07/08/03   FAIRFIELD                      TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
0457 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0345 PM    LONDON                    OH   WIND DAMAGE
07/08/03   MADISON                        TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
0504 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0500 PM    VERSAILLES                IN   FLASH FLOOD
07/08/03   RIPLEY                         NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED DUE
                                          TO HIGH WATER

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
0534 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0533 PM    5 S CELINA                OH   FLASH FLOOD
07/08/03   MERCER                         STATE ROUTE 127 CLOSED DUE
                                          TO HIGH WATER

AR