Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
247 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2003

UPPER AIR MAP HAS A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WITH RIDGE OFF TO THE WEST.
MAIN FEATURE OF CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE VORT MAX RAKING THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. DERECHO OUT AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX IS CRUISING ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CONVECTION SPROUTING UP SOUTH OF
THE DERECHO AS WELL.  WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY BEING ISSUED HERE.

MODELS ARE NOT DOING WELL WITH KEY SHORT WAVE FEATURES...PROBABLY
DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.  RUC40 SEEMS TO BE DOING BETTER IN THE
SHORT TERM...WITH A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE VORT NOW
AFFECTING OUR AREA.  RUC DOES SHOW ANOTHER VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN TIER TONIGHT.  UNFORTUNATELY...CURRENT RUC ONLY GOES TO
03Z TONIGHT.

WITH MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE AND INTERACTION
BETWEEN LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES...ILL PRESERVE CHANCE POPS
FOR TONIGHT.  GOING WITH HIGHER POPS NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE RUC HAS
VORT MAX. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING IN OR NEAR THE
REGION...IM KEEPING POPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN SHORT WAVE PLACEMENT IS LOW...IVE RAISED POPS TO 50% FOR
WEDNESDAY.  SODDEN AIRMASS WILL REQUIRE HEAVY RAIN WORDING THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  WILL EXTEND FLOOD WATCH WEST CENTRAL OHIO WHERE
FLOODING IS ONGOING.

TEMPS:  UPPER 80S EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY BEFORE COOLING INTO
LOW/MID 80S WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED:  DRYING TREND IS INDICATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

.ILN...NONE.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM FOR WEST CENTRAL AND PARTS OF THE
MIAMI VALLEY.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 PM FOR PARTS OF THE WHITE WATER VALLEY.
KY...NONE

CONIGLIO

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>097-099-100-OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-071315-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
715 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  FLOODING RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE TO THE NORTH I-70.  FLOOD WATCH
FOR WEST CENTRAL OHIO WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST AFTERNOONS AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH FRIDAY.  ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

 TIPTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, OH
413 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0344 PM    DUBLIN                    OH   WIND DAMAGE
07/07/03   FRANKLIN                       TREES AND POWER LINES
                                          DOWN. REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

0353 PM    WESTERVILLE               OH   WIND DAMAGE
07/07/03   FRANKLIN                       NUMEROUS TREES AND LIMBS
                                          DOWN. REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

0352 PM    SUNBURY                   OH   62 MPH TSTORM WIND
07/07/03   DELAWARE                       REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, OH
421 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0305 PM    EAST LIBERTY              OH   63 MPH TSTORM WIND
07/07/03   LOGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, OH
428 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0425 PM    MILLERSPORT               OH   WIND DAMAGE
07/07/03   FAIRFIELD                      TREES DOWN. REPORTED BY
                                          LAW ENFORCEMENT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
0432 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0425 PM    NEWARK                    OH   WIND DAMAGE
07/07/03   LICKING                        TREES DOWN

XXX

OHZ045-046-052>056-061>065-072200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
459 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 666 HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN OHIO...

  CHAMPAIGN       CLARK           DELAWARE          FAIRFIELD
  FAYETTE         FRANKLIN        GREENE            LICKING
  MADISON         MONTGOMERY     PICKAWAY          UNION

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION.  THEREF0RE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 666 HAS BEEN CANCELED.

CONIGLIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, OH
504 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0300 PM    GREENVILLE                OH   FLOOD
07/07/03   DARKE                          ROADS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
                                          WATER.

0315 PM    SIDNEY                    OH   FLOOD
07/07/03   SHELBY                         ROADS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
                                          WATER.

0300 PM    ST MARYS                  OH   FLOOD
07/07/03   AUGLAIZE                       HIGH WATER OVER ROADS.

0325 PM    RUSSELLS POINT            OH   FLOOD
07/07/03   LOGAN                          HIGH WATER OVER SEVERAL
                                          ROADS.

JDR