Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
221 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2003

MOIST JUICY AIRMASS ACRE FCST AREA THIS MRNG WITH DEWPTS IN L/M70S.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG I-71 BTWN MT VERNON AND CLE...THEN
LARGE MCS DROPPING QUICKLY ESE ACRS NORTHERN/CNTRL INDIANA.
NUMEROUS WIND DMG REPORTS WITH MCS OVER INDIANA...HAVE TSTMS
BEGINNING TO AFFECT WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES BY 07Z.

NO BREAK IN PATTERN OF WAVE AFTER WAVE OF TSTM COMPLEXES TO CONTINUE
ACRS OH VALLEY FOR NEXT 48-60 HRS AS FRNTL BNDRY OSCILLATES ACRS
REGION.  FIRST ISSUE IS MCS BARRELING TOWARDS FCST AREA ATTM.
APPEARS TO BE A BIT OF A WEAKENING TREND IN TSTMS OVER LAST HR...BUT
RADAR STILL INDCG STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS WITH LEADING
OUTFLOW.  ALSO...IWX/IND REPORTING WIND GUSTS 60-70 MPH ALONG LINE.
TSTMS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING WEST CNTRL OH COS AND WHITEWATER VALLEY
AREA OVER NEXT HOUR AND A HALF.  THEN EXPECT TSTMS TO CONTINUE ESE
TRACK...SPREADING ACRS CWA NORTH OF A BROOKVILLE IND TO WILMINGTON
TO CHILLICOTHE LINE.  MAY GET A FEW TSTMS SOUTH OF THIS LINE...BUT
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ACRS I-70 CORRIDOR.  SHOULD SEE TSTMS EXITING
FCST AREA BY 12Z AT LATEST.

AFTER THIS MRNGS ACTIVITY...SHOULD HAVE QUIET MORNING/ERLY AFTN
BEFORE CONVECTION STARTS FIRING AGAIN THIS AFTN INTO EVNG.  NICE
S/WV SLATED INTO CNTRL ILL BY 00Z WED WITH STRONG UPR DIV/LO LVL
CONV ACRS REGION TONIGHT...AND HIGH INSTABILITY.  WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED TO LKLY POPS ACRS NORTHERN FCST AREA TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
TSTM COMPLEX EXPECTED TO TRACK ACRS THIS AREA.

GFS/ETA ON THEIR 00Z RUNS HAVE MADE MAJOR ADJUSTMENT IN SPINNING UP
IMPRESSIVE S/WV ACRS NORTHERN PLAINS WED NIGHT PUSHING INTO GRT LKS
ON THURS.  HAVE LATCHED ONTO MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN...WITH EXPECTED
FROPA ACRS FCST AREA LATE THURS INTO THURS NIGHT.  KEEPING HI CHC
POPS MOST OF FCST AREA UNTIL FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THRU THURS NIGHT.
FCST AREA REMAINS FAIR GAME FOR REPEATED BOUTS OF TORRENTIAL
RAINS/SVR WX THRU THIS TIME.  LOOKS LIKE REGION WILL FINALLY GET A
BREAK FOR FRI/SAT AS HI PRES ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO OH VALLEY.

TEMPS...WARMED TEMPS WED THRU THURS WITH FRNTL BNDRY DRAPED ACRS
REGION.  WED NIGHT TEMPS RAISED SVRL DEGREES INTO M/U60S. RESULTANT
TEMPS CLOSE TO MAV GUID ALL PERIODS EXCPT WED.  WENT CLOSER TO
WARMER MET VALUES FOR WED.

.ILN...NONE.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 AM FOR WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND PARTS OF THE
MIAMI VALLEY...SVR TSTM WATCH UNTIL 5 AM FOR WEST CENTRAL OHIO...THE
MIAMI VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OHIO.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 AM AND SVR TSTM WATCH THROUGH 5 AM FOR
PARTS OF THE WHITEWATER VALLEY.
KY...NONE.

RYAN

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>097-099-100-OHZ026-034-035-
042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-071315-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
715 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  FLOODING RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE TO THE NORTH I-70.  FLOOD WATCH
FOR WEST CENTRAL OHIO WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST AFTERNOONS AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH FRIDAY.  ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

 TIPTON

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>045-051>054-060>062-080235-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
951 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 670 HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

INDIANA...

  FAYETTE       UNION         WAYNE

OHIO...

  AUGLAIZE      CHAMPAIGN     CLARK       DARKE      GREENE
  HARDIN        LOGAN         MADISON     MERCER     MIAMI
  MONTGOMERY    PREBLE        SHELBY      UNION

 TIPTON

CONIGLIO

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>045-051>054-060>062-080235-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED TYPE OF WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
951 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2003

TORNADO WATCH 670 HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

INDIANA...

  FAYETTE       UNION         WAYNE

OHIO...

  AUGLAIZE      CHAMPAIGN     CLARK       DARKE      GREENE
  HARDIN        LOGAN         MADISON     MERCER     MIAMI
  MONTGOMERY    PREBLE        SHELBY      UNION

CONIGLIO

OHZ056-065-074-080350-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1132 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 674 HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES, FAIRFIELD, HOCKING AND LICKING. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
PUSHED INTO EASTERN OHIO.

RLG