Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
242 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2003

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS.  FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
WEST THROUGH THURSDAY.  PLENTY OF SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS WILL
AFFECT OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.  HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF
IS THEN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH THE TROF
AXIS CROSSING OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT RUNS FROM IAG THROUGH CHI
TO LNK.  SODDEN AIRMASS (DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 70S...PWAT 1.5+)
SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS GOING TO REMAIN OVER OUR AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FIRST SHORT WAVE IS AFFECTING THE AREA NOW THROUGH THIS
EVENING.SCATTERED TSRA THAT ARE NOW INTENSIFYING (AREA UNDER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH) AHEAD OF FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING.

SECOND SHORT WAVE WILL ROLL IN ALONG THE FRONT AS IT DROPS TO
NORTH-CENTRAL OHIO BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH GFS AND ETA IN GOOD
AGREEMENT.  MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AS THE
SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES IN.  SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
OF THE REGION BY 00Z THURSDAY.

THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING...FRONT REMAINING IN
THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL REQUIRE KEEPING CHANCE
POPS.

STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL CRANK UP AHEAD OF SHARPER TROF LATE
THURSDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT SWINGING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  WILL
RAISE POPS TO LIKELY AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THAT SYSTEM
OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS.

WILL KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPS:  HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR HX 100+ IN CINCI.  SLIGHTLY COOLER
READINGS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH FRONT SAGGING SOUTH.

EXTENDED:  AIRMASS WILL FINALLY DRY OUT SIGNIFICANTLY FRIDAY AFTER
FRONT PASSES.  WEEKEND LOOKS MUCH LESS ACTIVE BUT CANT RULE OUT
TSRA SATURDAY NIGHT.  TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL BE LESS LIKELY WITH MORE
REASONABLE PWAT UNDER 1.5.

.ILN...NONE.

OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 AM WED FOR WEST CENTRAL OHIO AND PARTS OF
THE MIAMI VALLEY.  HEAT ADVISORY FOR HAMILTON COUNTY THROUGH
TONIGHT.
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 8 AM WED FOR PORTIONS OF WHITEWATER VALLEY.
KY...NONE.

CONIGLIO

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-081145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
554 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS.  FLOODING RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70.  THE FLOOD WATCH FOR WEST CENTRAL OHIO WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST AFTERNOONS AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  ANY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

RYAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, OH
1244 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0330 AM    COUNTYWIDE                OH   WIND DAMAGE
07/08/03   HARDIN                         SEVERAL TREES AND POWER
                                          POLES DOWN.

0537 AM    COUNTYWIDE                OH   WIND DAMAGE
07/08/03   HOCKING                        NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER
                                          LINES WERE DOWNED.

0340 AM    ANNA                      OH    MPH TSTM WIND GUST
07/08/03   SHELBY                         63 MPH

0250 AM    COUNTYWIDE                OH   FLASH FLOODS
07/08/03   MERCER                         SEVERAL ADDITIONAL ROADS
                                          WERE CLOSED ALONG THE ST.
                                          MARYS RIVER AND BEAVER
                                          CREEK.

0306 AM    COUNTYWIDE                OH   WIND DAMAGE
07/08/03   AUGLAIZE                       A POWER POLE AND LARGE
                                          TREE LIMBS WERE BLOWN DOWN.

0330 AM    TROTWOOD                  OH   WIND DAMAGE
07/08/03   MONTGOMERY                     POWER LINES WERE BLOWN
                                          DOWN.

JF

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>096-OHZ060>062-070>072-078-090445-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
105 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2003

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

THE UNUSUALLY LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...COMBINED WITH SUNNY SKIES AND DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING TO AROUND 90...WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS OVER 100
DEGREES. NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY BE ABLE TO DIP BELOW
70...AND THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

PERSONS IN THIS AREA ARE ADVISED TO AVOID PROLONGED WORK IN SUN, OR
IN POORLY VENTILATED AREAS. ALSO, KEEP PLENTY OF LIQUIDS ON HAND AND
TRY TO STAY IN AN AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENT.

FRANKS/SITES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, OH
213 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0205 PM    TROY                      OH   .75 INCH HAIL
07/08/03   MIAMI

0213 PM    TROY                      OH   .75 INCH HAIL
07/08/03   MIAMI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
0406 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0402 PM    RICHMOND                  IN   0.75 IN HAIL
07/08/03   WAYNE

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
0416 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0408 PM    VERSAILLES                IN   58 MPH TSTORM WIND
07/08/03   RIPLEY

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
0431 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0423 PM    5 SW VERSAILLES           IN   WIND DAMAGE
07/08/03   RIPLEY                         TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

AR