Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 PM CDT THU APR 24 2003

TNGT:
LAPS PORTRAYING VERY STEEP SFC-750MB LAPSE RATES OVER SC & SE KS THIS
AFTN. (NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC). THEREFORE, DESPITE WEAKENING DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR, INSTABILITY MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO ENABLE SVR TSRA TO DEVELOP
OVER SE KS THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. SVR TSRA
SHOULD CONCLUDE 9PM AS SFC LOW MOVES E/SE ACRS MO/AR BORDER ALLOWING
MUCH COOLER AIR TO INFILTRATE. SCT WRAP-ARND -RA PERSISTS OVER CNTRL
KS.

FRI:
WITH PREV-MENTIONED SFC LOW CONTG TRIP E ACRS LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
WRAP-ARND -RA TO BE CONFINED TO ERN CORRIDOR WHERE 20% POP ASSIGNED.

FRI NGT:
PARTIAL CLEARING SLATED MOST AREAS (MORE SO ACRS WRN 1/3 CWA) AS WEAK
INVERTED SFC RIDGE SETTLES INTO KS.

SAT:
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO CWA AS SFC TROF STRENGTHENS ALONG FRONT
RANGE IN RESPONSE TO VIGOROUS, NEG-TILTED 50-MB TROF LIFTS ACRS ERN
MT. INHERITED MAXES (LWR 70S) APR KOSHER.

SAT NGT:
WITH PREV-MENTIONED 500-MB TROF SURGING E ACRS WRN DAKOTAS (WHERE IT
EVOLVES INTO LOW), ANY SHRA/TS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN N OF CNTRL
KS.

SUN-THU:
FOR NOW NEXT SHOT FOR SHRA/TS APRS TARGETED FOR WED AFTN-THU, WHEN
MRFY PROGS A COLD FRONT TO DEVELOP WED AFTN ACRS CNTRL & ERN KS.
CREATURE TO SAG ACRS SE KS LATE AFTN-EVENING, THEREFORE INTRODUCED
GENERIC CHC TSRA THIS PERIOD.

FCSTID =    4
ICT   47  63  46  71 /  60   5  10   5
HUT   45  62  45  72 /  60   0  10   5
EWK   46  62  46  71 /  60   5  10   5
EQA   48  64  48  71 /  70  10  10   5
WLD   48  65  49  72 /  70  20  10   5
RSL   44  60  44  71 /  40   0  10   5
GBD   44  63  44  72 /  50   0  10   5
SLN   46  62  45  72 /  60   0  10   5
MPR   46  62  45  72 /  60   0  10   5
CFV   49  66  48  73 /  80  20  10   5
CNU   49  65  48  72 /  80  20  10   5
K88   49  64  47  71 /  70  20  10   5

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-251030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1149 AM CDT THU APR 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE AREA, THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY
PRESENT, LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER, A FEW
REPORTS OF COLD AIR FUNNELS OR EVEN BRIEF TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL, SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

JMC

KSZ047-050>053-067>072-082-083-242300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
129 PM CDT THU APR 24 2003

...COLD AIR FUNNEL CLOUDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...

A FEW COLD AIR FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL COLD
AIR FUNNELS TO OCCUR. WHILE MOST OF THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
TOUCH DOWN, A FEW COULD REACH THE GROUND AND BECOME TORNADOES. IN
THE EVENT THIS OCCURS, SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY IN A REINFORCED
STRUCTURE SUCH AS A BASEMENT OF A HOME, OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR.

JMC